"Prices we’ve never seen before are coming"… Samsung Electronics and SK hynix tipped for another blockbuster run

Counterpoint’s memory price outlook

Q1 seen rising 80–90%

Industry also sees 90–100% gains this year

EpicAI: “Extremely positive for Samsung and hynix”

A forecast says memory prices are set to jump 80–90% in the first quarter. The view is that rising prices for commodity server DRAM will continue, while NAND prices are also expected to climb in tandem over the same period. Analysts say this is “extremely positive” news for domestic manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

According to market research firm Counterpoint Research on the 5th, memory prices in Q1 are projected to rise 80–90% from the previous quarter—an unprecedented, record surge. Both within and outside the industry, some had previously expected memory prices this year to post gains in the 90–100% range, broadly in line with this outlook.

The uptrend in commodity server DRAM prices is cited as the key driver lifting overall memory prices. In addition, NAND—relatively subdued in Q4 last year—is now expected to rise 80–90% in Q1 as well. Prices for some HBM3 products are also forecast to increase.

The main reason behind the price spike is a sharp jump in server memory demand. For 64GB RDIMMs, the price was $450 as recently as Q4, but is set to exceed $900 in Q1. Analysts also say it could break $1,000 in Q2.

Choi Jung-gu, a senior researcher at Counterpoint, said, “Manufacturers are facing a double blow of rising component prices and weakening consumer purchasing power, and as the quarter progresses demand is highly likely to slow,” adding, “OEMs need to change procurement methods or focus on higher-priced models and offer value that justifies higher price points capable of absorbing the price increases.”

Smartphone makers are trending toward reducing DRAM content. PC makers are switching SSDs from TLC to QLC. Orders for LPDDR5 have increased on the back of new low-cost chipsets that support LPDDR5, rather than LPDDR4, which is in short supply.

Choi added, “Manufacturers’ profitability is also expected to reach levels never experienced before; already in Q4, DRAM operating margins were around 60%,” and “It was the quarter when commodity DRAM margins surpassed HBM for the first time, and Q1 will be the quarter when DRAM margins first exceed an all-time high.”

The sharp surge in memory prices is a key catalyst boosting earnings for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. With both DRAM and NAND seeing price spikes and demand surging, the two companies’ results are being underpinned. In particular, analysts say the jump in commodity DRAM profitability will also work in their favor in HBM4 price negotiations.

NAND, meanwhile, has accelerated its competitiveness recovery amid a boom in AI storage demand. As the AI inference market expands, there is also a view that by 2027, demand from Nvidia alone could account for 10% of total demand.

A synthesis of multiple securities-firm reports released from the 29th of last month through today using AI investment information platform EpicAI concluded: “As a memory maker, Samsung Electronics is a direct beneficiary of the price spike, with operating profit surging, while SK hynix is expected to deliver record-breaking results, driving both performance and corporate value,” adding, “With memory supply shortages expected to worsen through the first half of 2027, the earnings improvement trend is likely to continue, and the price surge will have an extremely positive impact on these companies.”

Kim Dae-young, Hankyung.com reporter kdy@hankyung.com