Bernstein: “Bitcoin’s pullback is merely a confidence shock… Maintaining the 2026 $150,000 target”

Even after a sharp drop in Bitcoin (BTC) prices, global investment bank Bernstein said there has been no structural damage to Bitcoin and maintained its 2026 target price of $150,000.

According to Cointelegraph on the 9th (local time), Bernstein said in an investor note, “If liquidity conditions improve, there is a high likelihood that Bitcoin will regain and surpass its all-time high,” adding, “Our 2026 target remains unchanged at $150,000.”

Bernstein characterized the recent decline in Bitcoin’s price as “the weakest bear-case scenario in history.” Even as Bitcoin fell about 50% from its peak, net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were limited to around 7%, and there were no major red flags across key market structures such as payments, custody, and trading infrastructure. The firm said the price action reflects only a simple crisis of confidence—not a case where something broke or a hidden problem surfaced.

As for why Bitcoin is underperforming gold, Bernstein pointed to the fact that it is still perceived not as a safe-haven asset but as a “liquidity-sensitive asset.” In a high-rate, tightening environment, funds have flowed into artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks and precious metals, creating short-term headwinds for Bitcoin. It added, however, that this does not imply structural damage to demand.

The firm also drew a line on risk factors raised in parts of the market. Bernstein said claims that AI is absorbing crypto capital, or that quantum computing poses an immediate threat to Bitcoin, are “overblown narratives.” Regarding quantum computing in particular, it said it is “not a Bitcoin-only issue but a challenge shared across digital infrastructure broadly, and an area that can be addressed in tandem as technology evolves.”

Bernstein also viewed the near-term risk of a crisis stemming from leverage at Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, as low. Given its long-dated preferred stock structure and ample cash holdings, the firm said short-term borrowing burdens or refinancing pressure should be limited. It added, however, that if prices fall below mining costs, selling pressure could emerge from some miners.

Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, also said of Bitcoin’s recent move below $70,000 that “institutional investors are viewing it as a new entry opportunity,” diagnosing the pullback as “a concurrent deleveraging process driven by macro conditions rather than an issue inherent to digital assets.” Meanwhile, from a short-term technical perspective, caution remains over the possibility of further downside. Some traders believe a meaningful bottom could form below $50,000.