Bitcoin supply rises amid long-term holder selling… "Entering a base-building phase?"

Suehyeon Lee

Summary

According to Glassnode, the net position change for Bitcoin long-term holders came in at -245,000 BTC, a distribution pattern similar to those seen during the 2019 and 2021 correction phases.
CryptoQuant said long-term holder supply has risen in 2026 from 13.63 million BTC to 13.81 million BTC, suggesting demand that views this decline as a discount zone.
With long-term holders’ SOPR above 1 and the current price above the realized price, the possibility of bottom formation or base-building is being discussed, while sensitivity to macro factors such as the U.S. CPI, FOMC, and a rate hold is expected.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

As volatility in Bitcoin (BTC) persists, an unusual pattern has emerged in which long-term holders (LTH) are selling while supply is increasing at the same time.

According to Glassnode data cited by Cointelegraph on the 9th (local time), the net position change for Bitcoin long-term holders last week came in at -245,000 BTC. This marked the largest net outflow since last December and resembles patterns seen during the correction phases in 2019 and mid-2021. At the time, after large-scale distribution, prices moved into a range-bound phase rather than plunging sharply.

However, the supply structure is sending a different signal. Data compiled by CryptoQuant show that in 2026, long-term holder supply actually increased from 13.63 million BTC to 13.81 million BTC. This reflects a structural feature whereby, as short-term holders’ trading activity contracts, coins held over time migrate into the long-term holder cohort. It suggests that despite profit-taking by some existing long-term holders, there is demand across the broader market that views the current decline as a “discount zone.”

In fact, the long-term holder SOPR (spent output profit ratio) has moved back above 1, signaling an exit from a loss-realization phase. Given that Bitcoin is trading above the aggregate realized price (about $55,000), some interpret the current zone as potentially aligning with a bottoming-out or base-building phase.

Still, near-term direction is expected to be heavily influenced by macro variables. With this week’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and ongoing monetary-policy uncertainty, the market is pricing in more than an 80% chance of the benchmark rate being left unchanged at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. On top of that, uncertainty over the selection of the Fed chair, elevated U.S. Treasury yields, and volatility in the dollar index are combining to keep Bitcoin likely sensitive to the macro backdrop for the time being, analysts say.

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