Ethereum futures premium cools…investor sentiment fails to rebound even in the $1,800 range

Source

Suehyeon Lee

Summary

Ethereum (ETH) monthly futures prices are holding at only about a 3% premium to spot, signaling continued deterioration in investor sentiment.
With Ethereum sliding to around the $1,800 level over the past month, the lack of a clear buying force is seen as increasing the likelihood that the bearish trend persists.
With Ethereum’s annualized supply growth rate at 0.8% over the past 30 days, deflation expectations have faded, and the weakness in derivatives is seen as reflecting slowing on-chain activity and risk-off sentiment.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Ethereum (ETH) investor sentiment appears slow to recover.

According to Cointelegraph on the 9th (local time), the monthly Ethereum (ETH) futures price is holding at only about a 3% premium to spot, signaling continued deterioration in risk appetite. That is below 5%, a level typically seen as neutral; despite prices sliding to around $1,800 over the past month, there are no clear signs of a rebound in demand for risk assets.

Market watchers say the bearish trend is likely to persist unless a clear buyer emerges. In 2026, Ethereum has underperformed by about 9% versus the total crypto market capitalization. Still, some argue it is hard to conclude that Ethereum’s network competitiveness itself has been impaired, given that the slowdown in demand for decentralized applications (DApps) is not unique to Ethereum. Including Layer 2, Ethereum accounts for more than 65% of total value locked (TVL) across the blockchain industry, and it continues to maintain an overwhelming edge in fee revenue and liquidity.

Even so, analysts note that investor disappointment is being driven by the supply structure and scaling strategy. Over the past 30 days, fees generated by the Ethereum mainnet and Layer 2 totaled about $19 million and $14.6 million, respectively. As subsidies for Layer 2 continue in pursuit of scalability, reduced mainnet activity has cut the amount of tokens burned, pushing Ethereum supply back into growth. On an annualized basis over the past 30 days, Ethereum’s supply growth rate stands at 0.8%, effectively eroding deflation expectations.

Macroeconomic uncertainty is also weighing on the asset. Concerns over a cooling U.S. labor market, combined with skepticism about the sustainability of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, have weakened appetite for risk assets broadly. Market participants view the slump in Ethereum derivatives not as a mere short-term pullback, but as a reflection of slowing on-chain activity and a broader risk-off mood.

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