Trump warns of "bad things" if Iran deal fails… Major US indexes fall [New York stock market briefing]

All three major US stock indexes fell. The decline was attributed to risk sentiment deteriorating as tensions between the United States and Iran escalated. Concerns over financial health also surfaced after private equity firm Blue Owl Capital declared a suspension of redemptions for some funds.

On the 19th (local time), at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 267.5 points (0.54%) from the previous day to close at 49,395.16. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 slipped 19.42 points (0.28%) to 6,861.89, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 70.91 points (0.31%) to 22,682.73.

Investor sentiment chilled as geopolitical risks intensified. Reports said the United States has concentrated its largest military force in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq targeting Iran, and that an immediate strike on Iran could be carried out as soon as this weekend if ordered by President Donald Trump—pushing tensions to a peak.

In remarks at the first board meeting of the Peace Committee held in Washington, DC, President Trump said, "Over the past several years it has been proven that it is not easy to reach a meaningful agreement with Iran, but we nevertheless have to reach a meaningful agreement," adding, "Otherwise bad things will happen."

The suspension of redemptions by Blue Owl is also fueling worries. Blue Owl said it will halt quarterly redemptions for its retail-focused fund, 'Blue Owl Capital Corp II,' and instead adopt an approach of intermittently returning proceeds whenever assets are sold going forward.

Blue Owl has been actively investing in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. This has amplified skepticism about the broader AI sector—raising questions about whether a liquidity crunch is emerging in AI capital expenditures.

Following the redemption suspension announcement, Blue Owl shares fell 6%. The intraday drop had widened to as much as 10%. As anxiety spread across the private equity industry, Blackstone fell 5.37% and Apollo Global Management slid 5.21%.

Mega-cap tech companies with market capitalizations of more than $1 trillion traded largely flat, with the exception of Apple (-1.43%). There were no stocks that swung sharply. Walmart, which posted strong results for the fourth quarter of last year, fell for a third straight day, pressured by its full-year net sales outlook coming in below market expectations.

Amazon overtook Walmart to become the world’s largest company by revenue last year. It was the first time Amazon has topped the global revenue ranking.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, fed funds futures priced in a 94.1% probability of the Fed holding rates in March. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose 0.61 points (3.11%) from the previous session to 20.23.

In the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for March delivery settled at $66.43 a barrel, up 1.9% from the previous session. The WTI futures settlement also marked the highest level since Aug. 1 last year.

By Young-gi Jin, Hankyung.com reporter young71@hankyung.com