"Bitcoin has an 88% chance of rising within 10 months"…Mid- to long-term optimism remains intact

Bitcoin has continued to struggle since the fourth quarter of 2025, but an analysis suggests that mid- to long-term optimism based on historical data still holds.

According to Cointelegraph on the 22nd (local time), network economist Timothy Peterson said in a recent analysis that "Bitcoin closed higher in 50% of the past 24 months," adding that "based on that, there is an 88% probability that Bitcoin will be higher than it is now in 10 months." The analysis is a statistical approach based on the frequency of monthly returns.

Peterson cautioned, however, that the indicator does not present a price target. "This indicator measures the frequency of gains, not the magnitude of gains. Even if Bitcoin moves sideways for several months, it is useful for capturing the timing of a trend reversal," he added. While defining the model as an 'informal' tool, he stressed that it is meaningful for detecting trend inflection points.

Other institutions in the market are also pointing to the possibility of a recovery in 2026. In a recent report, investment bank Bernstein assessed Bitcoin’s pullback as "the weakest bear-market scenario in history" and maintained its $150,000 price target. Major U.S. bank Wells Fargo likewise projected that a total of $150 billion could flow into Bitcoin and the stock market by the end of March.

Still, market sentiment remains subdued. A recent survey showed bearish perceptions among investors to be dominant. Despite the short-term weakness, statistics-based analysis and institutional outlooks are leaving room for a mid- to long-term rebound.