"Bitcoin's sharp rebound signals resilient liquidity... Korea stocks seen staging a strong bounce" - iM

The iM Securities Research Center forecast that Asian equity markets, including South Korea, which have suffered a rout over the past two days, will rebound sharply. As one of the key grounds, it pointed to Bitcoin’s sudden surge. The view is that, despite heightened geopolitical jitters, the unusually strong rise in Bitcoin—often seen as a bellwether risk asset—signals that global liquidity remains robust.

On the 5th, Park Sang-hyun, a researcher at the brokerage, said, "As European natural gas prices, which reacted most sensitively to the Iran situation, quickly regain stability, another notable asset-price move is Bitcoin," adding, "Bitcoin returning to the $70,000 level is the first time since Feb. 9, and is a signal that, even amid war-related uncertainty, global liquidity is holding up rather than tightening."

Park expected Asian equity markets, including South Korea, to post a sharp rebound.

"With Iran-related risks triggering a relatively steep correction, a rebound is also expected for Asian markets, including Korea," Park said. "It may take some time for stock indices to recover to pre-Iran-incident levels, but the likelihood that the panic-driven market moves are winding down has increased. Not only equity markets but also the FX market is expected to regain stability."

He also expects the won-dollar exchange rate, which at one point briefly topped 1,500 won, to stabilize on a downward trend. In overnight trading the previous day, the dollar-won rate fell to the 1,462-won level.

Still, he advised keeping a close watch on how the Iran situation evolves over the next week.

"Global financial markets are fortunately regaining stability, but the next week will be a critical watershed for a moderation in volatility or a rebound rally," Park said. "The key question is whether President Trump can find an exit to the Iran situation within the next week."

He added, "Reports that Iran tried to reach out to the U.S. to discuss terms for ending the war mean that, from the U.S.—that is, President Trump’s—perspective, an exit is becoming visible," while noting, "It’s too early to be optimistic given the situation is still fluid, but excessive pessimism should clearly be avoided."

Shin Min-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter radio@hankyung.com