US stocks whipsawed by Hormuz tensions…Will the KOSPI extend its rebound? [Market Preview]

On the 11th, expectations are growing that the Korean stock market may extend its rebound. Overnight, Wall Street closed mixed after a bout of sharp intraday volatility amid conflicting remarks over Middle East developments, but semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks remained firm. After surging more than 5% the previous day to shake off the shock of a steep sell-off, the KOSPI is expected to see continued bargain-hunting focused on semiconductors.

KOSPI jumps 5%…Reclaims the 5,500 level

According to the Korea Exchange on the 11th, the KOSPI closed the previous session at 5,532.59, up 280.72 points (5.35%) from the prior day. It climbed as high as 5,595.88 intraday, at one point posting gains in the 6% range.

Korean equities, which had plunged on concerns that the Middle East war could drag on, quickly pared losses as expectations for an end to the conflict spread. Early in the session, a rush of program buying also triggered a sidecar—its eighth activation this year.

The exchange rate also stabilized. The won-dollar rate, which had threatened to break above 1,500 won the day before, fell back to the 1,460-won range, helping improve investor sentiment.

Wall Street closes mixed amid confusion over the Strait of Hormuz

Overnight, US stocks ended mixed after seeing sharp intraday swings as comments on the Middle East situation diverged. On June 10 (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34.29 points (0.07%) to close at 47,706.51. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 lost 0.21% to 6,781.48, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.01% to 22,697.10, ending near flat.

Early in the session, risk appetite improved after US President Donald Trump made remarks suggesting the war with Iran was entering its final phase. Markets later swung sharply as statements by US officials conflicted over passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrote on his X account that “the US Navy successfully escorted tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” but later deleted the post, adding to confusion. After the White House officially denied it, stocks gave back most of their gains.

Geopolitical tensions resurfaced further after reports that Iran was laying mines along shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, according to intelligence assessments. Still, major semiconductor names such as Nvidia and Micron were relatively resilient, rising 1.6% and 3.54% from the previous session, respectively.

KOSPI overnight futures rise…Bargain-hunting expected

KOSPI200 futures traded in the overnight market ended higher, keeping expectations intact for the Korean market on the 11th.

According to the Korea Exchange, KOSPI200 overnight futures, which ended this morning, rose 6.35 points (0.77%) from the previous day to 828.50. Volatility widened sharply—at one point spiking to the 860 level—but the contract gave back part of its gains late in the session as position adjustments emerged, finishing in positive territory.

Analysts say the incentive for bargain-hunting in Korean equities remains valid even after the previous day’s surge.

Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, said: “Today’s Korean market may show a neutral-to-positive tone. While US stocks were mixed on noise related to the Strait of Hormuz, strength in US semiconductor names such as Micron and bargain-hunting demand formed after the recent plunge should be taken into account.” She added, “The policy momentum—including the Commercial Act amendment bill—is also resurfacing as major companies continue to announce shareholder-return policies, which could be supportive for Korean equities.”

Reporter Park Ju-yeon grumpy_cat@hankyung.com