Trump to address the nation soon… Will he announce an end to the military operation? [Lee Sang-eun’s Washington Now]

President Donald Trump is set to deliver a national address tonight at 9 p.m., or 10 a.m. Korea time. As it will be his first address to the nation since the Iran war began, attention is focused on what he will say.

In particular, the key question is what stance Trump will take on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. His messaging has been inconsistent. Yesterday, he stressed that it was not America’s purview, not America’s responsibility, and that countries using the strait would come and safeguard it. But this morning, he said he would not agree to a ceasefire with Iran and would keep attacking until the strait is reopened.

What is clear is that Trump is likely to convey that he will not let this drag on. As he said yesterday, the most likely scenario is that he repeats that it will be wrapped up within 2 to 3 weeks. In a phone interview with Reuters earlier today, he said the U.S. would withdraw fairly quickly and added that, depending on what is needed afterward, “we will come back to carry out (precision strikes on Iranian targets).” That leaves room for an interpretation that he could end this by pulling out for now while keeping the option of additional operations on the table.

Markets jumped this morning on a message suggesting Iran had requested a ceasefire, but Iran denied it. President Pezeshkian did release a letter addressed to Americans asking whether “America First” truly belongs on the U.S. government’s list of priorities today, but he did not mention a ceasefire. An Iranian official told CNN it was not true, describing Trump as an unstable eccentric.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which wields Iran’s real power, dismissed it as nothing more than Trump’s show and took a hard line, saying there would be no ceasefire. Axios also reported that the IRGC warned it would target offices in the Middle East where employees of U.S. big tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft and Google work.

While markets are anxiously waiting for the war to end quickly, betting markets see the odds of it ending this month as not particularly high. On Polymarket, bets imply a 20% probability the war ends by April 15 and a 40% probability it ends by the end of this month. Even the share expecting it to end by the end of June is only 66%. The remaining 33% reflects bets that it will not end by the end of June.

Trump may hope to exit after effectively giving up on Hormuz and unilaterally declaring victory, but there is no shortage of views that, over the long term, that would be a major burden not only for Trump but for the United States as a whole.

In particular, there is also analysis (Fortune) warning that abandoning the Strait of Hormuz could become a headache for the U.S. for decades. With Israel possessing nuclear weapons and the possibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons not fully eliminated, other countries would each conclude they, too, must acquire nuclear arms.

Another problem is that if Hormuz is abandoned, other countries are unlikely to stand by and allow Iran to continue controlling the region. The interpretation is that Israel and other Gulf states would pursue self-help measures to force Iran to step back, and that this would trigger conflicts in the region. Bob McNally, who served as an energy adviser in the George W. Bush administration, has argued that in that case the U.S. would be unable to avoid being drawn back into Middle East conflicts, and that it would be an even bigger blow to U.S. foreign policy than the defeat in the Vietnam War.

Ultimately, even if Trump dramatically declares an end to military operations in today’s address, it would be far from enough to end the turmoil. Rather, it is more likely to mark the beginning of even greater chaos.

Conversely, he could announce the deployment of ground troops to maximize a final wave of attacks. Scenarios being discussed include seizing Kharg Island, seizing Qeshm Island where Iran’s military capabilities are concentrated, or securing enriched uranium. None is an easy option, and because a national address is not a particularly suitable vehicle for launching a surprise operation, it remains unclear whether such content will be included.

Washington=Correspondent Lee Sang-eun selee@hankyung.com