Summary
- AP News reported that a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is showing signs of strain after Iran called it “unreasonable.”
- Tensions are continuing as the U.S. opposes Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its push to impose transit fees.
- Markets are assessing whether the ceasefire’s fragile state could lead to a renewed rise in geopolitical risks.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is showing signs of fraying just one day after it was announced.
AP News reported on July 8 that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called both the ceasefire and the negotiations themselves “unreasonable,” arguing that the U.S. had violated some of the 10 conditions presented.
The truce was meant to stop more than a month of military clashes. But tensions are resurfacing as the two sides give conflicting interpretations of the agreement.
Both Washington and Tehran are portraying the deal as a victory. At the same time, drone and missile attacks have continued, underscoring that tensions have not fully eased.
One of the main flashpoints is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran blocked the waterway in response to Israel’s attack on Lebanon, while the U.S. is demanding that it be reopened immediately. Tehran is also pursuing a plan to impose transit fees on ships passing through the strait, which the White House opposes.
Differences have also emerged over the scope of the ceasefire. Israel has said its military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon are not covered by the truce, a position that conflicts with explanations from mediators including Pakistan.
Pakistan said talks on a permanent end to the conflict could begin as early as July 11 in Islamabad. The U.S. delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance.
Markets are also watching the ceasefire's fragility, with the possibility of a renewed rise in geopolitical risk still in view.
YM Lee
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