Summary
- Goldman Sachs said it has raised its oil price outlook to reflect the supply shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Goldman Sachs said Brent crude will average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, raising its forecast from the previous $80 outlook.
- Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley said the Hormuz closure is causing a supply shortfall of several million barrels a day, alongside some demand decline.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Goldman Sachs raised its international oil price forecasts to reflect a supply shock from a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg reported on April 27 that Goldman Sachs, in a report, projected Brent crude would average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from its previous forecast of $80. It also lifted its outlook for the second and third quarters.
The bank estimated that oil production disruptions in the Persian Gulf now total about 14.5 million barrels a day. That is driving an "exceptional" inventory draw, with global crude stockpiles falling by 11 million to 12 million barrels a day.
The supply shock reflects the effective curtailment of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the conflict began, Brent prices have climbed about 50%.
Goldman Sachs also said that pace of inventory declines will be difficult to sustain. If supply disruptions persist, demand is bound to weaken as well. The bank pushed back its assumption for the normalization of Gulf exports to late June from mid-May.
Supply-demand imbalances have also deepened. Goldman Sachs estimates the global oil market will face a supply shortfall of about 9.6 million barrels a day this quarter.
Morgan Stanley likewise estimated that the Hormuz closure has reduced Gulf oil exports by about 14.2 million barrels a day. It added that some demand weakness is partially offsetting the disruption.
Suehyeon Lee
shlee@bloomingbit.ioI'm reporter Suehyeon Lee, your Web3 Moderator.
