Trump's 'Tariff Bomb'... Recession Forecast Exceeds 60%

Uk Jin

Summary

It was reported that the probability of a U.S. recession has increased to 63% due to President Trump's tariff announcement.
It was stated that major stock indices plummeted, resulting in a loss of 5 trillion dollars.
Major virtual assets continued to decline, with Bitcoin retreating to the $82,000-$83,000 range.

With the announcement of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy, concerns about a recession are emerging among investors. In the decentralized prediction market, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has surged to 63%.

According to the decentralized prediction platform Kalsi on the 5th (local time), the 'Recession this year?' probability has soared to 63%. This is an increase of about 20 percentage points compared to before President Trump's tariff announcement on the 2nd.

The Trump administration announced a basic tariff rate of 10% on all countries and a high reciprocal tariff rate on some major trading partners on the 2nd.

As a result, risk assets such as virtual assets (cryptocurrencies), stocks, and exchange-traded products (ETPs) have been unable to avoid a downward trend in recent days.

On the 4th, the Nasdaq index, composed of U.S. tech stocks, fell by 5% during the day, breaking below the 16,000 mark, while the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones index also fell by 5.97% and 5.50%, respectively. As a result, 5 trillion dollars evaporated from the stock market over two trading days due to President Trump's tariff announcement.

In the virtual asset market, concerns about a recession have also emerged, with most virtual assets showing weakness. Bitcoin, the leading virtual asset, rose to $87,870 just before the tariff announcement but retreated to the $82,000-$83,000 range after the announcement. Other major virtual assets such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also fell by 1.34% and 3.96% compared to the previous week.