Bitcoin rebounds on Trump's tariff relief... Retesting record highs after 'breather' [Kang Min-seung's Trade Now]

Recently, Bitcoin (BTC), which surged due to Trump's tariff relief remarks, has entered a 'breather' phase, and the market is showing complex movements in a sideways trend, requiring delicate responses in short-term trading.

Market experts diagnosed that if Bitcoin stably surpasses the $95,000 level, it is likely to continue its bullish trend, but if the $91,700 support level collapses, the risk of further decline may increase.

As of 22:32 on the 27th, Bitcoin is trading at 135,590,000 won on the Upbit KRW market, down 0.24% from the previous day (based on Binance USDT market, $93,863). At the same time, the Kimchi Premium (price difference between overseas and domestic exchanges) is 0.35%.

US-China trade negotiations, temperature difference remains... "Tension continues despite tariff deferment"

As signals surrounding US-China trade negotiations are mixed, tension in the global stock and cryptocurrency markets continues. US President Donald Trump reiterated his intention to reduce tariffs on China and emphasized the progress of negotiations, but China completely denied this.

According to CCTV and others on the 26th, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the US stated, "There has been no consultation or negotiation with the US on tariff issues." The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce also issued separate statements on the same day, stating, "No form of negotiations is being conducted with the US."

Previously, on the 23rd, President Trump stated, "We can lower the high tariffs imposed on Chinese imports," and "We will decide on the tariff rates we will choose within the next 2-3 weeks." When asked if he was directly negotiating with China, Trump replied, "Yes, every day."

Amid mixed signals from trade negotiations, the anxiety of US consumers continues. The University of Michigan's final April consumer sentiment index was 52.2, slightly revised upward from the preliminary figure (50.8) announced earlier this month. Compared to March, it decreased by 8.4%, clearly showing a decline in consumer confidence.

In particular, the expected inflation for the next year was recorded at 6.5%, the highest level in 44 years since 1981. Concerns are growing that the US economy may fall into recession along with rising prices due to the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy, and Wall Street is keenly aware of changes in consumer sentiment indicators.

Meanwhile, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch, as of 18:00 on the day, the market is reflecting an 89.6% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold the base rate at its May meeting. The first rate cut is expected in June, with a 57.2% probability of being implemented.

"Bitcoin rebounds on Trump's tariff deferment... ETF inflows and big hands strengthening accumulation"

A total of $3.0629 billion (approximately 4.4069 trillion won) was net inflowed into the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) during the week (21st-25th). This is due to the significant improvement in risk asset preference as US President Donald Trump expressed his intention to reduce tariffs on China. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve's withdrawal of existing guidelines requiring prior approval for banks' cryptocurrency-related activities also supported the upward trend.

Signs of improved supply and demand are being detected within the market. Cryptocurrency service provider Matrixport diagnosed, "Market participants have expectations that President Trump's tariff policy will not lead to a global economic recession."

They added, "As the market sentiment changes, Bitcoin open interest and speculative trading activities are increasing, and recently Bitcoin is proving its status as a hedge against dollar investment exposure. It is only a matter of time before it surpasses the $95,000 stop-loss level for major short positions."

Global cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex also evaluated in its weekly report, "Bitcoin is showing clear resilience even amid the most turbulent macroeconomic uncertainties in years." The report added, "Bitcoin is strengthening its position as a store of value along with gold, rebounding more than 16% from its low, recording superior performance compared to traditional risk assets." During the same period, the volatility index (VIX), known as the 'fear index,' surpassed 40 for the first time in five years, and US stocks and bonds faced extreme volatility.

On-chain indicators suggest a recovery trend while also showing that volatility and tension remain. On-chain cryptocurrency analysis platform Glassnode stated in its weekly research report, "Bitcoin is continuing its rebound by recovering the $94,000 level." They added, "In the Bitcoin spot ETF, institutional demand is showing strongly, with $1.54 billion in funds flowing in just one day." The recent inflow into Bitcoin ETFs is comparable to the initial inflow when it was launched last year.

The report diagnosed, "Bitcoin is showing a technical recovery trend by exceeding the average purchase price (average price) of short-term investors, but the market is still in a decision-making phase." It added, "Whether a full-fledged trend reversal occurs requires further confirmation, and the movement of the derivatives market, such as additional tariff policy announcements, ETF supply and demand flow, and short squeeze possibilities, will act as important variables for future direction."

Recently, 'big hand' investors who hold large amounts of Bitcoin have been continuously adding to their holdings despite the volatile market. On-chain data platform Santiment stated, "Shark and whale wallets holding 10 or more and less than 10,000 Bitcoins account for about 67.77% of the total supply." They added, "They have net purchased more than 53,652 BTC in the past four weeks." Along with this, the trading volume in the spot market and the open interest in futures have surged, supporting the upward trend.

Meanwhile, open interest refers to the number of contracts that traders have not liquidated in the derivatives market. An increase in open interest means that funds are flowing into the market. Generally, as open interest increases, the volatility of coin prices is likely to increase.

"Bitcoin facing major resistance... Attempting to retest $100,000"

Market experts diagnosed that if Bitcoin stably surpasses $95,000, it is likely to continue its recovery trend, but if it falls below $91,700, the decline may expand. On-chain analysts evaluated that Bitcoin's futures open interest increased by 10% and the funding rate turned positive, reviving bullish sentiment. Some derivatives exchanges observed that 27,000 Bitcoins were withdrawn in a short period, indicating increased volatility.

Recently rebounding Bitcoin is analyzed to have entered a major resistance zone. NewsBTC researcher Aayush Jindal diagnosed, "Bitcoin continued its upward trend by surpassing the $92,500 and $92,800 resistances but faced strong resistance around $94,500." He added, "If Bitcoin fails to surpass $94,500, it may retest short-term support and enter a correction phase."

If it fails to break through major resistance, additional correction pressure may increase. Jindal predicted, "In the upper range, $94,200 and $94,500 will be the first resistance levels, and if these areas are surpassed, it can rise further to $94,650, $95,500, and even $96,200." On the other hand, "If it fails to overcome the resistance, a downward correction may begin, with major support levels located at $93,100, $92,750, and $91,700. Depending on the situation, there is also a possibility of further decline to $90,500," he added.

On the other hand, signs of institutional investors returning are being detected, increasing expectations for a rise. Cointelegraph researcher Rakesh Upadhyay diagnosed, "Inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have surged since the 21st, and the market is continuing its rebound centered on Bitcoin." He predicted, "Bitcoin is attempting to digest supply around $95,000, and if it surpasses this area, it can further rise to the psychological resistance level of $100,000 and even $107,000."

There is also an opinion that Bitcoin has entered a breather phase ahead of a new rise. Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, analyzed, "Bitcoin has rebounded about $20,000 from its low earlier this month, rising to around $94,000," adding, "The technical target is around $106,000, close to the historical high area. If the pattern repeats, Bitcoin could challenge the all-time high for the third time this year." Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has risen more than 8.5% over the past seven days, continuing the recovery trend.

Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit Reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io