Tariff Impact Intensifies... US Consumer Confidence in April at Lowest in 5 Years

Outlook for 6 Months Ahead at Lowest Since 2011

Inflation Worsens, Employment Situation Deteriorates, Spreading Pessimism

As pessimism grows over tariffs affecting the US economy and labor market outlook, US consumer confidence in April fell to its lowest level in about five years.

On the 29th (local time), the Conference Board announced that the economic confidence index for April fell by 8 points to 86, the lowest level since May 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic began to spread. This also marks a five-month consecutive decline, the longest since the 2008 global financial crisis. It is lower than the economists' forecast of 88 compiled by Bloomberg.

The indicator measuring consumer expectations for the next six months worsened further, dropping to its lowest level since 2011, and the indicator reflecting the current situation also declined.

Inflation expectations rose to their highest level since November 2022, when inflation hit a 40-year high. The proportion of those expecting interest rate hikes next year due to inflation forecasts also increased.

The percentage of consumers who said it is difficult to find a job increased to 16.6%, the highest level since October. The percentage of consumers who said jobs are plentiful was lower.

The Conference Board's data aligns with the University of Michigan's survey results, showing growing consumer concerns that massive tariff increases will reduce the economy and jobs and worsen inflation.

Stephanie Gishard, chief economist at the Conference Board, stated in a release, "All three expectation factors—business conditions, employment outlook, and future income—have deteriorated sharply, reflecting widespread pessimism."

Guest reporter Kim Jeong-ah kja@hankyung.com