Crypto Assets Catch Their Breath Amid US-China Tariff Tensions… Will an ‘Altseason’ Arrive in the Second Half of the Year?

Ongoing Correction Amid US-China Tariff Tensions

Experts: “Outlook for an Altcoin Bull Market in the Second Half Remains Intact”

Even as the crypto asset (cryptocurrency) market continues to correct in the wake of escalating trade tensions between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China, market experts still hold expectations that an 'altseason' will arrive in the latter half of this year.

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high after surpassing $110,000 on the 22nd of last month and has since been undergoing a correction. As of 2:53 p.m. on the 5th, Binance Tether (USDT) market, it was trading at $104,598.78, down 2.69% from last week. Ethereum (ETH), which had briefly reclaimed the $2,700 mark, was also trading at $2,612, down 0.57% from the previous week.

This correction is interpreted as a result of risk-off sentiment triggered by the intensifying US-China trade conflict. Previously, on the 11th of last month, the two countries agreed to lower tariffs by 115% for 90 days. However, on the 30th, Donald Trump, President of the United States of America, asserted on Truth Social that “China is maintaining restrictions on the export of critical minerals despite the agreement,” claiming a breach of the deal. Following this, the mood in the crypto asset market returned to a tense phase, but experts still interpret this as a temporary correction and believe it is too early to give up on expectations for an 'altseason.'

Kim Donghyuk, a Dispread researcher, stated, “If the tariff dispute risks between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China are resolved, demand for risk assets is expected to increase. We can look forward to the rise of altcoins that are attracting attention, including Bitcoin.”

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, projected that another uptrend rally may unfold after this summer. He diagnosed, “For altseason to start, Bitcoin must first break through $110,000, and as trading volumes increase, it needs to reach the $150,000 to $200,000 range.” He added, “As early as this summer or early in the third quarter, if this price band is reached, the chances are high that a full-fledged altseason will begin.”

However, he noted, “This altseason will not be a period where every coin surges 100x as in 2021,” and continued, “This time, it is highly likely that only select projects with new narratives will see sharp rises.” He further forecast, “Large, old coins listed only on exchanges, with low circulation and no real users or revenue, will be left out in this rally.”

'Bull Flag' Pattern Spotted… Some See it as a Harbinger of 'Altseason'

Positive signals have also appeared from a technical analysis perspective. Cointelegraph recently reported that both the 'Cup-and-handle' pattern—which indicates a sharp rally following a brief correction—and the 'Bull flag' pattern—which suggests a continued uptrend—have simultaneously appeared on the Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) chart.

Crpto Dan, an analyst at CryptoQuant, predicted, “The cup-and-handle and bull flag patterns on the ETH/BTC chart also emerged in early 2021, followed by an altcoin season in the first half of 2021. Taking this into account, there is a strong possibility that another altseason could arrive in the latter half of 2025.” He continued, “Currently, Bitcoin dominance is at a relatively high level of 65%, so a substantial drop in Bitcoin dominance below 60% would likely mark the beginning of the altcoin season.”

It is also noteworthy that the proportion of the altcoin market cap within the crypto asset market is retesting its long-term uptrend line. Sensei, an anonymous crypto asset analyst, forecast, “Historically, whenever there has been a rebound from this section, the altcoin market has shown explosive gains, and it appears there is considerable upside potential this time as well.”

Analyst Moustache also added, “The altcoin market is showing signs of breaking out of a falling wedge pattern—which is characterized by declining highs and lows over the past seven years. Such patterns also appeared ahead of massive uptrends in both 2017 and 2020.”