Bitcoin Options $15 Billion Expiry Imminent... Largest Scale This Year

The Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives market is facing the largest monthly options expiry of the year. With recent increased volatility in Bitcoin, there are expectations that new trends may emerge after the options expiry.

On the 26th (local time), Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer (CCO) of Deribit, said in an interview with Decrypt, "Of the approximately $40 billion in open interest for Bitcoin options at present, contracts worth around $15 billion are set to expire this Friday." He added, "As Bitcoin derivatives trading has become more active, the trading volume in Bitcoin options contracts for Q2 increased by about 25% compared to last year's average."

He explained, "If Bitcoin drops to $102,000, the largest number of contracts will expire worthless at the 'max pain point.' The put-to-call ratio is 0.73, indicating that the market overall is leaning slightly bearish."

Market volatility is remaining lower than expected. According to Deribit data, the Bitcoin volatility index (IV) has fallen below 38, the lowest since October 2023. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) volatility remains between 60~80, indicating a potential for greater price swings.

Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, also commented, "Volatility for this expiry will be limited except during New York trading hours. However, if Bitcoin breaks out of the current range and ETF inflows continue after the expiry, we could see new market direction emerge."