'$4,000 by Year-End' vs 'Already Peaked': Heated Debate Over Gold Prices

As gold surged nearly 30% this year, Wall Street is voicing diverging outlooks for gold prices in the second half. On the 30th at the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), gold futures were traded at $3,381.5 per troy ounce during the day (2 p.m.), up 27.1% from the start of the year ($2,658.9). Recently, gold prices have moved between $3,200 and $3,500 per ounce over the past two months, after surpassing $3,500 per troy ounce in April and then experiencing a downward correction. This is attributed to easing concerns over the worst-case scenario as the US and various countries made partial progress in tariff negotiations.

With the US, after the UK, having concluded tariff talks with the European Union (EU), the investment industry remains divided on whether gold prices can rise further. Ian Sampson, a Fidelity Investments fund manager, said in a Bloomberg interview on the 29th (local time), "With the Fed likely to become more dovish on monetary policy and the US dollar trending downward, gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by year-end." Goldman Sachs also stated in a recent report, "Demand for gold from ETFs and central banks is supporting gold prices," adding that gold could break through $4,000 in the first half of next year.

Conversely, Citigroup stated in a recent report, "We continue to emphasize the view that gold may have already peaked." They noted that expectations of Fed rate cuts were already priced in, enabling gold to hit the $3,500 level back in April. They also forecast that safe-haven demand may decrease once signs of economic recovery appear.

Citigroup projected that after fluctuating around $3,000 per ounce in the third quarter, gold prices could fall below that level next year. Max Layton, Citigroup analyst, said, "In the second half of this year, gold prices could decline further to $2,500–2,700."

— Han Kyungjae, Reporter