[Analysis] Bitcoin Options Market Turns 'Neutral'... Bullish Sentiment Weakens Amid Inflation Concerns

An analysis has suggested that the long-term bullish sentiment in the Bitcoin (BTC) options market has shifted to neutral. As macroeconomic uncertainties such as inflation and weak employment increase, cracks have appeared in the long-term upward outlook.

On the 5th, CoinDesk, a digital asset (cryptocurrency) media outlet, cited data from the digital asset derivatives exchange Deribit, reporting that "the 180-day options skew for Bitcoin has recently neared zero." This means the implied volatility gap between call and put options has disappeared, indicating that market sentiment has shifted from 'bullish' to 'neutral.'

Griffin Ardern, Head of Options Trading at BloFin, explained, "With the recent market pullback, bullish signals have disappeared from long-term Bitcoin options," adding, "This suggests it is now less likely for a new high to form in the next few months." He also noted, "A similar trend was observed at the beginning of the Bitcoin bear market in January–February 2022."

Macroeconomic anxiety is also influencing sentiment in the options market. Bitcoin has recently declined by more than 4%, approaching its previous high of $109,650. The simultaneous rise in the US June core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and weak nonfarm employment data are seen as broadening concerns over the economy.

JPMorgan also stated in a report, "The tariff policies promoted by President Donald Trump could push global prices up to an annualized rate of 3.4% in the second half of 2025," diagnosing that "inflationary pressures will be especially concentrated within the US."

Meanwhile, the market is watching for the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which provides insight into service price trends. Later this week, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) announcements are also scheduled.