"Probability of a US Key Rate Cut in September at 92.2%… Virtual Asset Market Anticipates Bullish Turn"

There are growing expectations in the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market as the possibility that the US central bank, the Fed, will cut the key rate in September has exceeded 90%.

According to BeInCrypto, a virtual asset-focused media outlet, the probability of a US rate cut in September, based on the CME FedWatch, has been calculated at 92.2%. This is a sharp increase from 41% at the end of last month. The Fed has kept the key rate frozen at 4.25~4.50% since December last year. Observers note that with the potential for long-term rate cuts once again in the spotlight, there is growing optimism about improved investor sentiment toward virtual assets.

This outlook reflects US job market slowdown in July and weaker-than-expected tariff effects. The US Department of Labor recently announced that the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, prompting major investment banks to bring forward their anticipated timing of a rate cut to September.

Previously, the global investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted that the key rate would be lowered three times—in September, October, and December—by 25bp (0.25% points) each. Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and UBS also expect a rate cut this year, with UBS projecting a total decrease of 100bp.

Virtual asset analyst Ted Pillows commented on X (formerly Twitter), "I'm very optimistic about Q4," and analyzed, "Rate cuts, robust economic fundamentals, and improved regulatory clarity will be key drivers of upside."

The outlet noted, "After last month's rate freeze, major virtual assets like Bitcoin have shown a downward trend," and evaluated, "This expected rate cut could provide a turning point for the market."