Trump rages... Will the '110-year-old' monthly employment report be discontinued?

Next BLS Director: "Should be changed to quarterly publication"

Trump also dissatisfied with employment indicators

New BLS director nominee Antoni

"Monthly reports can result in overstatements"

Concerns in the markets over data manipulation

"Only wants data that fits his agenda

Trust will only come if he takes off the MAGA hat"

Donald Trump, President of the United States, has nominated E. J. Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, as the new director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On the 12th (local time), it became known that Antoni asserted the BLS should discontinue its monthly employment report, sparking controversy. This report has been a key indicator of the U.S. labor market since its inception in 1915.

◇ Claims "Difficult to trust data"

Antoni, the BLS director nominee, criticized in an interview with Fox News Digital on the 4th that "the data in monthly employment reports is hard to trust and often tends to be overstated." In the interview, he stressed, "If we can't even be certain about how much jobs are increasing or decreasing in the economy, how are businesses supposed to plan, and how is the Federal Reserve supposed to implement monetary policy?" and called it a "serious issue that needs urgent resolution." He further argued that, until the issue is resolved, "the monthly employment reports should be halted and instead, although less timely, more accurate quarterly data should continue to be released." This interview took place a week before President Trump nominated Antoni as the next BLS director on the 11th, but the details became publicly known later, causing controversy.

President Trump fired Erica Groshen, then BLS director, suddenly after the BLS released July employment indicators that fell short of market expectations and significantly revised downward the job gains for May and June. Then, on the 5th, he claimed that the BLS had exaggerated job gains during Joe Biden's term and understated them during his own, insisting that the data "was deliberately manipulated to make the Republican Party and me look bad."

◇ Criticisms: "Take off the MAGA hat first"

Antoni is not entirely without justification. He has argued for improving data collection rates and adopting new technologies. The BLS collects responses from 60,000 households and 120,000 businesses using phone calls and in-person interviews, methods it has stuck to for decades. However, as response rates of these traditional surveys have dropped from about 90% ten years ago to below 70%, there has been a call for reform, and the BLS has been pursuing additional online responses in the long-term. Budget shortages have also impacted statistical quality. The BLS decided to stop producing over 300 sub-categories of producer prices, and there is pressure to reduce the number of surveyed households.

Recently, employment figures have been substantially revised due to increasing response delays from businesses, resulting in data delays and a larger proportion of late-collected data being incorporated retroactively, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

However, concerns are growing in the market that Antoni is not merely seeking simple data quality improvements. Stan Veuger, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), told the Financial Times (FT), "There was an expectation that President Trump would choose someone who is reliable and not excessively partisan, but Antoni is the opposite," adding, "Even those who agree with his economic policies think he is unqualified." Jessica Ridl, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, told the FT, "No reliable economist would take a job where you can be fired for releasing data that doesn't fit Trump's agenda." The WSJ, in an editorial, remarked, "For Antoni to gain the public’s and market’s trust regarding BLS data, he'll have to take off his MAGA (Make America Great Again) hat."

Michael McKee, Bloomberg TV reporter, pointed out, "Even though the indicator is released late and subject to revision, it's still the most reliable one we get every month," and added, "It's not even clear whether the BLS director has the authority to halt these statistics."

According to the Washington Post (WP), the BLS's monthly employment report, published since 1915, has served as a key barometer for new jobs and unemployment rates, guiding industry, investors, policymakers, and even the Federal Reserve in assessing the U.S. labor market. Thus, if the BLS discontinues the monthly report and replaces it with a quarterly one, skepticism may only increase in the market about whether employment data is being tailored to suit the government’s agenda.

Washington — Lee Sang-eun, Correspondent selee@hankyung.com