Powell’s Speech, Trump Tariffs, Ukraine Negotiations… A Volatile Week Begins [New York Stock Market Outlook]

Source

Korea Economic Daily

Summary

This week, at the Jackson Hole Symposium, it was reported that Chair Powell’s speech and potential rate cut signals are expected to have a major impact on New York Stock Exchange volatility.
It was stated that President Donald Trump's semiconductor tariff policy and the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations are expected to act as major variables in the market.
Key economic indicators such as the S&P PMI, the FOMC minutes, and the earnings reports of retailers are drawing the focus of investors.

Chair Powell to Deliver Economic Outlook Speech on the 22nd

Focus on Possible Rate Cut Signals

‘Trump Semiconductor Tariffs’ Also a Variable

Earnings Reports from Target, Walmart, and Others

This week in the U.S. stock market, there are several major events to watch, including the Jackson Hole Symposium, semiconductor tariffs, and Russia-Ukraine negotiations. In addition, key economic indicators and earnings releases from retailers are scheduled, increasing the prospects for heightened volatility.

The main focus will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium, held from the 21st to the 23rd (local time) in Wyoming. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, will deliver a speech about the economic outlook at 10 a.m. on the 22nd. How he evaluates the recent weak employment data is a key point to watch. The Applied Equity Advisory Team at Morgan Stanley Asset Management warned, “If Jackson Hole signals there will be no rate cut, the market will be vulnerable to selling pressure.”

Investors are also paying attention to President Donald Trump’s semiconductor tariff. On the 15th, President Trump stated that he would set tariffs on steel and semiconductor chips, remarking, “We will start at a low level but later raise them very high.”

Ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are another major variable. On the 18th, President Trump announced that Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, would visit the White House. If a peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, it is expected to have a significant impact on the stock market.

The August Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), to be released on the 21st, is a key indicator for gauging the U.S. economic trend. On the 20th, the minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will also be released. Investors will especially watch retailer earnings as an indicator of consumer sentiment, starting with Home Depot on the 19th, followed by Target and Lowe’s on the 20th, then Walmart on the 21st.

Reporter Da-Yeon Lim allopen@hankyung.com