"Will a US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral summit be held?" US stock market remains flat... Household loans surge sharply subdued [Morning Briefing]

◆ New York Stock Exchange ends mixed amid anticipation and caution for trilateral talks

The three main indices of the New York Stock Exchange fluctuated narrowly in a flat range and ended mixed as the possibility of a US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral summit was closely watched. On the 18th local time, the Dow Jones Index fell 0.08% to 44,911.82 from the previous session, the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.01% to 6,449.15, and the NASDAQ rose 0.03% to 21,629.77. If the trilateral summit takes place, it is expected to mark a turning point in the Ukraine war. This week, major retailers such as Walmart and Target are scheduled to announce their earnings, and since they are directly affected by tariffs, it will be possible to gauge how uncertainty is reflected in the real economy.

◆ Trump: "Trilateral talks with Putin"... Zelensky: "Ready"

US President Donald Trump reaffirmed security guarantees for Ukraine during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. He added, "If all goes well, we will have a trilateral summit," expressing his intent to pursue a summit involving Russian President Vladimir Putin as well. President Zelensky responded, "We must stop this war" and said, "I am ready for a trilateral meeting." After his meeting with President Zelensky, Trump continued discussions with European leaders including the EU Commission President and the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Secretary-General.

◆ Drastic drop in bank credit loans... Mortgage loans also plunge

The growth in household loans in the banking sector has sharply slowed. This month, credit loans surged due to demand from IPO subscriptions and investment in the stock market, but the scale of increase has significantly declined. According to the financial sector on the 19th, the outstanding balance of credit loans at the five major banks (KB Kookmin Bank, Shinhan Bank, Hana Bank, Woori Bank, NH Nonghyup Bank) as of the 14th (₩104,218.6 billion) decreased by about ₩820 billion compared to the first week of this month, the 7th. The growth in mortgage loans, which had been boosting household debt, is also slowing. Outstanding mortgage loans at the five major banks (₩605,486.4 billion) increased by ₩1,516.2 billion compared to the end of last month, but this is significantly less than the growth seen in July, which was ₩4,545.2 billion. The decline in loan limits and restrictions on new loans are attributed to the real estate loan regulations of June 27 and the stage 3 stress DSR.

◆ National Pension Service actively considers transitioning from 'post-settlement' to 'pre-support'

The government is actively considering a plan to switch the National Pension Service's credit payment for childbirth and military service from the current "post-settlement" to "pre-support." This analysis came after projections that this move could save up to ₩88 trillion in national finances in the long term. The Ministry of Health and Welfare officially announced through a major business plan report submitted to the National Assembly Health and Welfare Committee on the 18th that it is reviewing a plan for "pre-support for childbirth credits." The core is to move up the recognition point for credits from the pension benefit stage to the occurrence stage. The government calculated that it is more financially sound to cover a relatively small premium early on rather than make up a much larger future pension payment later. However, since it increases the immediate fiscal burden, the current generation will be sharing the burden to ease that of future generations.

◆ Rain in central regions... Heat continues

Today (the 19th), Tuesday, will see continuing heat as rain falls over the central region until the morning. Precipitation of 5~20㎜ is expected until the morning in the metropolitan area, inland/mountainous Gangwon, and Chungnam. There will also be showers in eastern Gyeonggi, inland Gangwon, inland Chungcheong, Jeolla, and inland Gyeongsang in the afternoon. Despite the rain, the maximum perceived temperature will remain around 33°C, and the highest daytime temperature will reach 30~35°C. Fine dust levels are forecast to remain at "good" or "normal" levels nationwide.

Kim Bong-gu, Hankyung.com Reporter kbk9@hankyung.com