Editor's PiCK

US FOMC Releases July Minutes..."Tariffs Exert Upward Pressure on Commodity Prices"

Source
JH Kim

Summary

  • Some FOMC members stated that it is not appropriate to adjust monetary policy only after fully confirming the impact of tariffs on inflation.
  • A majority of members indicated that although tariffs are putting upward pressure on commodity prices, the rise in import prices and its timing are expected to be smaller and later than previously projected.
  • Most members concluded that the risk of inflation outweighs that of the labor market, and projected that the unemployment rate would exceed the natural rate by the end of the year.

According to the minutes of the July 2025 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting released by the Fed on the 20th (local time), some committee members pointed out that it is practically impossible and inappropriate to adjust monetary policy only after fully assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation.

A majority of members mentioned that it may take time for the effects of tariffs to be fully reflected. It was also noted that, amid stagnant progress in the slowing inflation rate, tariffs are putting upward pressure on commodity prices.

However, it was projected that the increase in import prices would be smaller than previously expected and that the timing of the increase would also be delayed.

In addition, most members judged that the risks of inflation outweighed those of the labor market, and concerns over rising asset values were raised. The labor market is expected to gradually weaken, and the unemployment rate is projected to surpass the natural rate by the end of the year and remain at this level through 2027.

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JH Kim

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