US indicators halted by shutdown…Markets on edge as US-China conflict reignites

CPI and other key indicators postponed one after another…Concerns grow over an 'in the dark' market

Additional 100% tariff on China heightens uncertainty for New York and Shanghai stock markets

With a US government shutdown delaying the release of major US economic indicators this week, the rekindling of US-China trade tensions has emerged as a key variable that could shake investor sentiment.

This week, the disclosure schedule for key indicators was repeatedly postponed due to the government shutdown. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI), originally scheduled for release on the 15th, was postponed to the 24th. If the shutdown is not resolved, other releases scheduled for this week — including September retail sales, the Producer Price Index (PPI), weekly initial jobless claims (the 16th), and September export and import prices (the 17th) — will also not be released. As a result, investors may face an 'in the dark' market where they must gauge the economy's trajectory without major indicators.

Corporate earnings announcements are also expected to affect investor sentiment. In particular, this week sees major banks releasing results in quick succession. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and BlackRock will all release their results on the 14th. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America (BoA) will announce earnings on the 15th.

However, the renewed US-China trade tensions could weigh on the New York and Shanghai stock markets, which had recently been performing well. US President Donald Trump announced on the 11th that, in response to China's export controls on rare earths, he would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese-made products starting next month. Currently, the US average tariff rate on Chinese goods is about 55%; if this measure is implemented, an average tariff of 155% is expected to apply.

Meanwhile, China will publish its September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) on the 15th. If the CPI shows a decline for a second consecutive month following August, concerns about deflation (a fall in prices amid economic contraction) are likely to intensify.

Reporter Im Da-yeon allopen@hankyung.com