[Morning Briefing] Trump again mentions "South Korea 'US$350 billion up front' agreement"... New York stocks close mixed

◆ Trump again mentions "South Korea 'US$350 billion up front' agreement"

U.S. President Donald Trump on the 15th (local time) again claimed that South Korea agreed to pay US$350 billion (about 500 trillion won) up front as part of a trade agreement with the United States. In a press conference at the White House that day, President Trump listed the results of tariffs and said, "Both Japan and South Korea signed. South Korea will pay US$350 billion up front, and Japan agreed to US$650 billion." South Korea reached a broad trade agreement with the United States at the end of July, but final signing has not yet taken place amid differences over how the US$350 billion investment to the United States would be implemented. Also, the size of the U.S.-bound investment that Japan agreed to is US$550 billion, so it is possible President Trump misstated the figure. The remarks came in the context of emphasizing the importance of tariffs to the U.S. economy and security ahead of a Supreme Court ruling on mutual tariffs imposed on various countries. President Trump also said on the 25th of last month, "We are getting US$550 billion from Japan and US$350 billion from South Korea. This is up front."

◆ New York stocks close mixed after extreme volatility amid mixed factors

The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed after showing extreme volatility. With U.S.-China trade tensions still unresolved, strong bank earnings and hopes for rate cuts became intertwined, creating a chaotic picture. On the 15th (Eastern Time), at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,253.31, down 17.15 points (0.04%) from the previous session. The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index closed up 26.75 points (0.40%) at 6,671.06, and the Nasdaq Composite closed up 148.38 points (0.66%) at 22,670.08. The United States and China continue to maintain tense relations over trade. Starting the previous day, the United States and China began charging port entry fees on each other's vessels, and President Trump said he was considering banning imports of Chinese cooking oil. By sector, communication services, utilities, and real estate rose more than 1%. Industrials, financials, energy, and materials fell. Mega-cap tech firms with market capitalizations above US$1 trillion were mixed. NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon were roughly flat, while Alphabet, Broadcom, and Oracle rose around 2%.

◆ Government joint response team arrives in Phnom Penh, pursuing discussions on repatriation of Koreans

A government joint response team dispatched to respond to recent kidnappings and detentions of Koreans arrived in Cambodia on the 15th (local time). The response team, led by Kim Jin-ah, Second Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, arrived in the afternoon at Techo International Airport, about 20㎞ south of Phnom Penh, the capital of Cambodia. Entering the arrivals hall, team leader Kim Jin-ah said, "While I was on the plane, more distressing news was reported," referring to "the death of a woman in her 30s at the Vietnam border near Cambodia." She added, "We requested that Vietnamese and Cambodian authorities actively investigate going forward," and, "We will cooperate more actively in this process." The response team is pushing to meet with senior Cambodian officials to first negotiate a plan to repatriate 61 Koreans who were detained in local law enforcement operations. Police are reportedly planning to bring back to Korea those among them for whom arrest warrants have been issued first. However, many are said to be refusing to return and choosing to remain in Cambodia, so it is unclear how quickly repatriation can proceed.

◆ "Divorce of the century" Choi Tae-won vs. Noh So-young Supreme Court ruling today... decision on property division

The Supreme Court will issue its final ruling on the 'divorce of the century' lawsuit between Choi Tae-won (65), chairman of SK Group, and Noh So-young (64), director of Art Center Nabi, on the 16th. The Supreme Court's First Division (Presiding Justice Seo Kyung-hwan) will hold the oral ruling for the appeal in the divorce case between Choi and Noh at 10 a.m. that day. Whether the second-instance ruling will be overturned and remanded due to identified issues or whether the appellate court's conclusion will be upheld is a matter of intense interest. It has been 8 years and 3 months since Choi filed for divorce mediation in July 2017, and 1 year and 5 months since the appellate court in May last year ordered Choi to pay Noh 2 billion won in compensation and KRW 1.3808 trillion in property division. Choi and Noh married in September 1988 and had three children, but later separated. In 2015, Choi announced through the media, "I have been living with a deep rift with Ms. Noh for more than 10 years," and revealed the existence of an extramarital child. Choi filed for divorce mediation for an uncontested divorce against Noh in July 2017, but when no agreement was reached in February 2018, a formal lawsuit began. Noh filed a counterlawsuit in December 2019 stating she would agree to the divorce.

◆ Fourth day of the first state audit of the Lee administration... clashes expected over 'Yoon administration audits and R&D budget cuts'

On the 16th, the National Assembly will enter the fourth day of the first state audit of the Lee Jae-myung administration. That day, hearings will be held in 10 standing committees: Legislation and Judiciary; Political Affairs; Strategy and Finance; Education; Science and ICT Broadcasting and Communications; Foreign Affairs and Unification; National Defense; Culture, Sports and Tourism; Industry, Trade, and SMEs; and Land, Infrastructure and Transport. The ruling and opposition parties are expected to clash again particularly in the Legislation and Judiciary Committee and the Science and ICT Committee. In the Judiciary Committee's audit of the Board of Audit and Inspection, the Democratic Party is likely to demand a swift audit into the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's push to increase medical school quotas by 2,000 and the process of promoting the Daewanggoelae promising structure drilling project. On the other hand, the People Power Party is expected to criticize the Board of Audit and Inspection's formation of a "reform task force (TF)" as a de facto political revenge TF aimed at overturning audits conducted under the Yoon administration. The two parties are also expected to spar over the Democratic Party-led on-site inspection at the Supreme Court the previous day. The People Power Party opposed the Democratic Party's on-site inspection at the Supreme Court, calling it "judicial takeover," and declared a disruption of the audit. In the Strategy and Finance Committee's audit of the National Tax Service, the ruling and opposition parties are expected to battle over the Lee administration's tax reform proposals, including raising the corporate tax rate.

◆ Koo Yoon-chul in the U.S.: "Korea-U.S. trade talks are at a stage of quickly coordinating with each other"

On the 15th (local time), Koo Yoon-chul, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance, said regarding the prospects for a final agreement in Korea-U.S. trade negotiations that "they are still at a stage of quickly coordinating with each other." After arriving via Dulles International Airport near Washington, D.C., Koo told reporters that in response to the question of whether the two countries were in a late-stage coordination phase due to progress in talks, he gave that answer. Regarding U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent's remark that day that talks with Korea were "aiming to finish, resolving the details," Koo said, "That was news that came out while I was on the plane, so I need to meet with Secretary Bessent to confirm." On the composition of the US$350 billion U.S.-bound investment package, a sticking point in the talks, Koo said, "We are still discussing it." On the need to secure foreign exchange market safety measures when the Korean government raises large amounts of U.S. dollars to fund the U.S.-bound investment, he said, "The United States understands our foreign exchange market well," and added, "So I think they will probably accept what we have proposed."

◆ Nationwide cloudy with rain...up to 20㎜ per hour in the morning in some areas

On Thursday the 16th the nation will be mostly cloudy with rain through the morning. According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Incheon, northern Gyeonggi and northern inland Gangwon will see raindrops until the morning, and most regions nationwide will see rain until the morning before it stops, but the Gyeongsang region and Jeju Island will see rain into the afternoon, and Gangwon's east coast and the east and northeast mountains of North Gyeongsang will see rain into the night. In the Jeonnam region, Gyeongnam region, and Jeju Island, there will be strong rain of around 20㎜ per hour accompanied by gusts, thunder, and lightning until the morning in some places. Expected precipitation amounts are Busan, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang and Jeju 10–50㎜; Daegu and North Gyeongsang 10–40㎜; Gwangju and South Jeolla 5–40㎜; Gangwon east coast, Ulleungdo and Dokdo 5–20㎜; North Chungcheong 5–10㎜; around 5㎜ for inland southern Gyeonggi, central and southern Gangwon, Daejeon, Sejong, South Chungcheong, and North Jeolla. Morning lows are expected to be 15–21°C and daytime highs 19–27°C. For the time being, morning temperatures will be higher than the seasonal average (low 5–15°C), and daytime temperatures will be similar to or slightly higher than the seasonal average (19–23°C). Fine dust is expected to be "good" across all regions.

Cha Eun-ji, Hankyung.com reporter chachacha@hankyung.com