Doohyun Hwang

South Korean virtual asset (cryptocurrency) exchange Upbit said on the 21st that it will hold a special event for new Upbit members with fashion platform Musinsa to mark 'Mujinjang 25 Winter Black Friday.' Those who sign up for Upbit and complete customer verification (KYC) by the 30th can participate in the 'Upbit X Musinsa Money Event.' All participants will receive a Musinsa Money 10,000 won gift certificate. A '1 Bitcoin (BTC) additional event' will also be held for participants in the Musinsa Money event. If the gift certificate code received through the Musinsa Money event is registered on the Musinsa website, a lottery will award 1 Bitcoin to one person. An Upbit official said, "We are pleased to collaborate with Musinsa, a fashion platform that has strong trend influence centered on the MZ generation," and added, "We hope more users can experience Upbit in a fun and easy way through this event."

Analysis shows that the entity leading Bitcoin(BTC) weakness is medium-term (3~5 years) holders. VanEck said in a report on the 19th (local time), "The recent sell-off was mostly by medium-term holders who moved coins within the past 5 years," and "The oldest holders are surprisingly stable despite bearish sentiment." It added, "The amount of Bitcoin that has not moved for more than 5 years increased by about 278,000 over the past 2 years," adding, "This is a sign that the long-term holders' firm conviction remains intact." Meanwhile, the amount held by medium-term Bitcoin holders was found to have decreased by 32% over the past 2 years. VanEck explained, "The current sell-off is the influence of 'Cycle Trader' who rotate investments according to economic cycles," and "It is difficult to view this as investors' capitulation regarding Bitcoin."

An analysis has emerged that the current Bitcoin (BTC) decline originated from individual selling of spot ETFs. On the 20th (local time), according to JPMorgan, the key cause of this adjustment was not crypto-native investors but large-scale selling by individual investors who had been buying Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. JPMorgan said in the report, "The October adjustment was due to large-scale deleveraging by crypto-native investors in the perpetual futures market, but in November that reduction in leverage stabilized," and added, "What is continuing the decline across the crypto market now are non-crypto investors using spot ETFs, mainly individuals." According to JPMorgan, roughly $4 billion exited Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in November, already surpassing the largest net outflow recorded in February this year. Interestingly, this is the exact opposite of individual investors' flows into stock ETFs. For stock ETFs (including leveraged products), about $96 billion flowed in net in November. If this trend continues, it would be about $160 billion for the month, reproducing the strong inflows seen in September and October. JPMorgan said, "This pattern repeated three times this year," adding, "Individuals consistently show buying in stock ETFs but treat crypto ETFs as a separate investment bucket and selectively sell them." It added, "It would be plainly wrong to judge, based solely on crypto ETF selling flows, that individual investors have turned pessimistic toward all risk assets."

Amid the rapid convergence of artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, and the Web3 ecosystem, global Web3 distribution infrastructure company KGeN said on the 20th that it is pursuing strategic expansion centered on its core product, the VeriFi protocol. Against the backdrop of increasing demand for AI training, expansion of the tokenized economy, and growth of distributed user networks, the goal is to advance VeriFi to build the world's largest real-user-based distribution layer. KGeN pointed to "an environment where it is difficult to distinguish real users from automated bots" as a structural problem the Web3 ecosystem has long faced. It is difficult to verify an actual user base using only participation indicators, and this has acted as a key constraint on platform trustworthiness and business expansion. To solve this issue, KGeN is building infrastructure centered on a human-based identity and reputation verification structure. The company's core infrastructure, the VeriFi protocol, has a structure that verifies real users based on user behavior and records participation, reward, and onboarding paths on the blockchain. This means it can expand as trust-based user acquisition infrastructure in various fields beyond Web3 or game projects, such as AI, consumer applications, and decentralized finance (DeFi). KGeN operates the AI data and model evaluation organization 'KAI Training & Evaluation (KAI)' and is strengthening integration with VeriFi. KAI has secured a verified expert network of over 1 million people across 60 countries and more than 20 language regions using KGeN's reputation engine 'POGE'. They perform core data tasks required by global AI companies, such as multimodal data collection, data labeling like object detection and transcription, and evaluations of search quality and machine translation. Through this process, KGeN's strategy is to build an integrated pipeline that spans user acquisition to data contribution and model evaluation, supporting companies in securing trustworthy user groups and a verified data environment. A KGeN official said, "Platform trust ultimately comes from a structure in which real people participate," adding, "We will enhance the accuracy and stability of next-generation digital and AI systems centered on a verified user base and transparent data flows." They added, "Having already secured a user base on the scale of tens of millions and numerous global partnerships, we plan to continue expanding trust-based distribution infrastructure for AI and Web3 companies."

Mastercard announced on the 18th (local time) that it is launching a new on-chain authentication and transfer system called 'Crypto Credential' based on Polygon (POL). 'Mastercard Crypto Credential' is a system that allows sending and receiving digital assets using only a username without a blockchain wallet address, replacing the existing long hexadecimal (hexadecimal) wallet addresses with simple, human-readable usernames. After a single onboarding and verification process, users can immediately execute transfers between multiple wallets based on the same username. The structure fundamentally reduces the risk of transfer accidents caused by incorrect address copy-and-paste. The verification process is handled by payment infrastructure company Mercuryo. When a user initiates a transfer, Mercuryo automatically verifies that the asset, blockchain, and wallet are all valid and checks in real time whether the transfer is possible. This function is much safer and more intuitive than the previous method where users had to directly verify wallet address matches or chain compatibility. With this launch, blockchain-based transfers have taken on a form more similar to existing digital payment experiences. Username-based transfers follow the familiar user experience (UX) from traditional finance while maintaining the transparency, immutability, and finality provided by the on-chain. Polygon Labs said, "This integration is an early stage that shows what global on-chain movement of funds might look like," and added, "On-chain payments will become established in a simple, safe, and accessible way."

Nasdaq-listed IP Strategy said on the 19th that it had strategically purchased the native tokens 'ARIAIP' and 'APL' of Aria Protocol, a global intellectual property (IP)-based real-world asset (RWA) project. IP Strategy, which operates digital asset strategies centered on Story (STORY, IP), said that through this purchase it aims to expand collaboration with IP RWA projects that have been commercially validated within the Story ecosystem and to strengthen medium- to long-term ecosystem participation. IP Strategy will be able to participate in Aria Protocol's governance through the 'ARIAIP' it secured this time. In addition, by holding 'APL', which reflects royalty revenue generated from music IP, it has broadened access to IP-based income-generating assets. The company said that securing the two assets not only complements its financial strategy based on the Story ecosystem but is also expected to serve as an opportunity to establish a foundation to selectively invest in models with high commercial applicability, such as music royalty-based IP RWA. In particular, 'APL' is expected to act as a new revenue source in the future, together with IP Strategy's validator business, whose profitability has recently expanded. Aria Protocol is a project that implements ownership management, licensing, and revenue distribution of music IP on-chain based on the Story blockchain, and has demonstrated the scalability of the IP RWA model by tokenizing music catalogs such as BTS, Justin Bieber, BLACKPINK, Madonna, and Miley Cyrus. The recent 'ARIAIP' community sale closed oversubscribed, which has been evaluated as confirming demand from global investors. Seung-yoon Lee, CEO of Story and advisory chairman of IP Strategy, said, "Aria is a representative case showing what commercial value programmable IP can create," and added, "IP Strategy's purchase suggests that the Story-based IP economy has reached a new turning point in terms of ecosystem maturity and readiness for institutional participation." David Kostiner, co-founder of Aria Protocol, said, "IP Strategy joining as a holder of 'ARIAIP' and 'APL' is an important signal about Aria's long-term growth potential," and emphasized, "The role of connecting regulated capital markets with on-chain IP assets will contribute to the expansion of the IP RWA market." Meanwhile, IP Strategy plans to hold an Investor Day event on the 20th (local time) to unveil its strategic roadmap and business plans. The event is expected to present measures to expand access to the global IP asset pool estimated at 80 trillion dollars, the distinctiveness of models that hold Story as a primary preparatory asset, the performance of the validator business, and prospects for a new institutional-grade market combining AI·blockchain·IP.

Options Market Bets on Decline…Spot Demand Also Plummets Selling Pressure from DAT·Fed Hawkish Tone Spreads Weak Sentiment Counterargument: "Only a Short-Term Correction…Still Room to Rebound" Eyes on FOMC Minutes on the 20th and September Employment Data Bitcoin (BTC) ultimately gave up the $90,000 level and its downtrend has shown little sign of stopping. It is the first time in about seven months since April that bitcoin has fallen below $90,000. On the 17th (local time), bitcoin plunged about 5% on the Binance Tether (USDT) market, falling intraday to $89,253. That is roughly 30% below last month's record high ($126,200). It later barely recovered the $90,000 level but has not escaped an unstable trend. Options and Spot Deteriorate Simultaneously…"Risk of Further Decline Has Increased" The biggest factor driving bitcoin's weakness was a clear downward skew in the options market. According to Deribit data, demand for protective put options to defend the $85,000 and $80,000 price levels surged recently. For contracts expiring at the end of this month alone, more than $740 million in bearish bets have accumulated, far outpacing demand for bullish positions. A put option is a contract that allows parties to sell at a predetermined price, so it yields profit if the price falls below the purchase price. Weakening spot demand also increased selling pressure. Chris Newhouse, research director at Ergonia, analyzed that "a large portion of buyers who had been accumulating bitcoin over the past six months are now in loss territory," adding "spot purchases based on conviction have decreased, raising the risk of further declines." The recent shock of the correction has also concentrated on digital-asset treasury (DAT) firms. Some companies that amassed large amounts of bitcoin earlier this year are facing selling pressure due to increased financial burdens. Strategy has been holding on after recently adding about $835 million worth of bitcoin, but the possibility of other firms selling still fuels market unease. Technical signs of weakness are also clear. QCP Capital explained that "bitcoin fell below the 50-week moving average last week, and for the first time since May the weekly close was under $100,000," adding "investor sentiment has further deteriorated." Considering the recent accumulated selling pressure, weakening spot buying, and delayed liquidity recovery due to shutdown effects, the strength of any rebound could be limited. In fact, short-term option implied volatility has exceeded 50%, and hedge demand centered on put options has increased, raising caution. QCP noted that "$88,000 and $74,500 are viewed as key medium-term support levels." Counterargument: "Only a Short-Term Correction…Plenty of Room to Rebound" On the other hand, some analysts say the market structure has not collapsed. Bernstein diagnosed in a recent report that the current selling is a "typical short-term correction stemming from concerns about the four-year cycle peak." They explained that preemptive profit-taking mindful of the usual Q4 peak pattern is a major factor. Bernstein characterized this decline as a 'moderate correction.' One reason is that about 340,000 bitcoins sold by long-term holders over the past six months have been largely absorbed by spot ETFs and corporate purchases. The report also drew a line under market speculation that Strategy sold bitcoin, saying "the likelihood is low," because Strategy holds $61 billion worth of bitcoin while its liabilities are $8 billion, so leverage burden is not large. The report emphasized that "structural bullish factors—such as the U.S. federal government's pro-digital-asset stance, the prospect of digital asset legislation passing this year or early next year, and entry into a rate cut cycle—remain valid," adding "there appears to be ample room for a rebound." The trading platform Coveyci Letter also analyzed that "this correction is a 'typical pattern' that does not deviate from the long-term trend," and that "the current decline is due to excessive leverage liquidations." Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, also wrote on his blog recently that "if a policy shift by the U.S. federal government materializes, a strong rebound could follow." He said, "Bitcoin is correcting because ETF and DAT buying pressure has weakened and 'fake liquidity' has disappeared," and "but if U.S. Treasury yields rise further, the Fed and the Treasury will have no choice but to provide liquidity. If that happens, bitcoin could rebound to the $200,000–$250,000 range by year-end." FOMC Minutes and Employment Data Likely to Decide Direction The market is focusing on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes to be released on the 20th (local time) and key economic indicators as the main variables that will determine bitcoin's direction. Initially, the market expected consecutive rate cuts at the December FOMC, but the mood has changed sharply after several hawkish Fed officials recently said "further cuts should be approached cautiously." With major data gaps persisting due to the shutdown effect, this minutes release is expected to reveal which way the Fed's judgment is leaning. Diverging views within the Fed are widening. On the 17th (local time), Fed Governor Christopher Waller said at an annual dinner of professional economists in London that "core inflation is approaching the target and signs of weakening are appearing in the labor market," and that "he supports an additional 0.25% point (p) rate cut at next month's FOMC." Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson presented a cautious view at an event of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City that day, saying "if rates fall too low it may be difficult to sufficiently suppress inflation," and "further cuts should proceed more slowly." The U.S. September jobs report to be released the same day is also expected to be an important variable. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish September unemployment and nonfarm payroll data, which had been delayed just before the shutdown. As the first key indicator to gauge the health of the labor market, market attention is focused. In particular, if the employment data come in stronger than expected, expectations for rate cuts could fall further, which would likely pose additional pressure on the crypto market.

The virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market has been unable to escape its weak trend. Market participants view the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, to be released on the 20th, and U.S. employment data as key variables that will determine future price direction. Bitcoin recently fell below the $95,000 level intraday, marking a six-month low. With major economic indicator releases postponed one after another due to the shutdown, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has fewer grounds on which to judge whether to cut rates, and investor sentiment has contracted. Concerns over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble have compounded the situation, increasing overall caution toward risky assets. Differences of opinion within the Fed over rate cuts are widening. Markets had initially expected consecutive rate cuts at the December FOMC, but recently hawkish (favoring tightening) members have said "further cuts should be approached with caution," shifting the tone. What judgments were exchanged amid the data gap is expected to be revealed by the release of the minutes. The U.S. September employment report to be released that day is also cited as a variable that could sway market direction. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the September unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll figures. These were indicators postponed just before the shutdown, and as the first data to assess the health of the U.S. labor market, they are drawing investor attention. If the employment data are stronger than expected, expectations for rate cuts could be further reduced.

[Weekly Major Economic & Cryptocurrency Schedule] U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC minutes etc. <Next week's major economic schedule> ▶︎17 (Mon): ▶︎18 (Tue): △U.S. October industrial production (KST 23:15) ▶︎19 (Wed): △U.K. October consumer price index (KST 16:00) △EU October consumer price index (KST 19:00) ▶︎20 (Thu): △U.S. crude oil inventories (KST 12:30) △U.S. September employment report △U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes (KST 04:00) △U.S. November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activity index (KST 22:30) ▶︎21 (Fri): △U.S. October existing home sales (KST 00:00) △South Korea October producer price index (KST 06:00) △U.S. November services and manufacturing purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) (KST 23:45) <Next week's major cryptocurrency schedule> ▶︎17 (Mon): △Zilliqa (ZIL) mainnet upgrade △zkSync (ZK) token unlock ▶︎18 (Tue): △EtherFi (ETHFI) analyst call △Astar (ASTAR) community call △ ▶︎19 (Wed): △Avalanche (AVAX) mainnet upgrade ▶︎20 (Thu): △LayerZero (ZRO) token unlock △Kaito (KAITO) token unlock ▶︎21 (Fri):

Zcash (ZEC)'s explosive rise is said to be rattling existing perceptions in the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market. On the 15th (local time), Hunter Horsley, Bitwise CEO, wrote on his X, "With Zcash's price surging, the old perception that 'only Bitcoin is real and the rest are scams' is being shaken," and added, "It will be difficult for related organizations to present a unified response to this." Zcash has shown standout strength even in a virtual asset market that has remained in a downturn. It surged about 250% over the past month and is estimated to have risen more than 1000% on a one-year basis. On that day, in the Binance Tether (USDT) market, Zcash was trading in the $683 range, up 0.08% from the previous day.

The on-chain trading volume of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) fell sharply within a week. On the 15th (local time), according to DefiLlama, the total trading volume on DEXs across all chains last week was 95.229 billion dollars. It decreased by about 21.6% compared to the 121.532 billion dollars recorded the previous week, and was about 44.3% lower than this year's high of 171.104 billion dollars. By chain, Solana (SOL) ranked first with 23.815 billion dollars. The BNB Chain followed with 22.561 billion dollars, and Ethereum (ETH) was third with 16.829 billion dollars.

The virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market continued an overall weak trend this week. While most of the top market-cap assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), recorded weekly declines, some assets limited their losses and showed relatively resilient performance. According to CoinMarketCap as of 3:30 p.m. on the 15th (local time), Bitcoin was recorded at $95,937. It fell 5.82% on the week and also fell 0.48% over 24 hours. Ethereum also fell 5.65% over seven days to $3,211. It rebounded 1% compared with the previous day, but it was insufficient to reverse the overall weak trend. The weakness among altcoins was more pronounced. Solana (SOL) fell about 10% over seven days, sliding into the $140 range. It was the largest decline among major large-cap coins. Cardano (ADA) also fell 9.43%, and Binance Coin (BNB) and Dogecoin (DOGE) fell 4.13% and 5.72%, respectively. Despite this adjustment, some assets showed defensive strength. XRP (XRP) fell just 0.30%, effectively remaining flat. Tron (TRX) rose 2.57%, showing a rare strength among top coins. Privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) surged 21.86%, and Uniswap (UNI) also rose 32% on the week, continuing strong momentum. Mid-cap market-cap coins mostly continued to be weak. Chainlink (LINK) fell 6.64% on the week, Avalanche (AVAX) fell 7.89%. Hedera (HBAR) fell 9.10%, and Sui (SUI) plunged 15.06%, recording the largest drop. Shiba Inu (SHIB) also fell 6.12%, joining the weakness.

The Solana (SOL) spot ETF trading in the U.S. has continued its streak of inflows since listing. According to data from Farside Investors on the 15th (local time), the Solana spot ETF listed in the U.S. has recorded net inflows for 14 consecutive trading days since it began trading on the 28th. Cumulative inflows amount to $382 million. Of this, Bitwise's 'BSOL' attracted most of the funds with $357.8 million. Grayscale's 'GSOL' also drew inflows of $24.4 million. However, Solana's price has not escaped a downtrend. On the day, Solana was trading at $141 on the Binance Tether (USDT) market, down about 1% from the previous day.

Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine, said the recent plunge in the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market is close to a short-term shock. On the 15th (local time), Lee said via his X, "There is no fundamental change to the long-term bullish setup centered on Ethereum, the so-called 'Ethereum (ETH) supercycle.'" He explained, "The recent weakness in virtual assets is a typical sign that there is a large 'hole (hole)' in market makers' financial statements," adding, "Sharks are targeting the liquidity void left by market makers and are pushing prices down hard to induce liquidations. This pain is clearly temporary and should not be seen as a change in market structure." He also issued a warning to investors. Lee said, "Now is not the time to use leverage. Do not get liquidated."

The largest short position on Zcash (ZEC) on HyperLiquid (HYPE) has been maintained for more than a month, resulting in a large unrealized loss. According to data from HyperInsight on the 15th (local time), the whale opened a 5x leveraged short position on the 11th when Zcash was $360, but ZEC has risen to $700. The liquidation price is $1,084, and the unrealized loss amounts to about $20 million. It was confirmed that the investor deposited an additional approximately 5 million USDC that day to increase the margin. Separately, the whale also holds a 15x leveraged short position on Ethereum (ETH). Opened at about $26 million in size, this position has an entry price of $4,094 and is currently showing roughly $7 million in floating profit.

Jeff, founder of Hyperliquid (HYPE), rebutted claims that the future of decentralized finance (DeFi) is bleak. On the 15th (local time) at Token2049 held in Singapore, Jeff said, "It is not true that the vision of DeFi is over," and emphasized, "DeFi is not a separate world but a superior financial technology." Jeff cited the global consensus mechanism as the intrinsic value of blockchain. He said, "Blockchain is a technology that enables the same rules and consensus worldwide, especially in coordinating money and assets," and explained, "Traditional finance and DeFi are not colliding or merging; financial infrastructure is naturally evolving as it adopts better technology." He added, "The financial industry is not rejecting or absorbing DeFi. The market always chooses better technology," and "The structures and mechanisms developed in DeFi are spreading to traditional finance."

The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated forfeiture proceedings for $15.1 million worth of Tether (USDT) seized from a North Korean hacking group. On the 15th (local time), according to the U.S. Department of Justice, the government filed two civil forfeiture lawsuits to formally seize the Tether that North Korean hackers stole from overseas virtual asset (cryptocurrency) platforms the year before last. The funds were found to have been siphoned off by APT38, a hacking organization under North Korea's Reconnaissance General Bureau, after hacking four overseas virtual asset platforms at the time. The FBI seized the related funds in March of this year, and this forfeiture process is the legal approval procedure for returning them to the victims. The Department of Justice said, "APT38 continues to launder funds through various channels such as bridges, mixers, and over-the-counter trades," and added, "Tracking, seizure, and forfeiture operations on the related stolen virtual assets will continue."

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing intensified declines. On the 13th (local time) on the Binance Tether (USDT) market, Bitcoin plunged about 5% from the previous day, falling intraday to $96,712. This is the lowest level since May. The downward trend is not limited to Bitcoin and is spreading across major crypto assets. Ethereum (ETH) plunged 9.01% to $3,156, Ripple (XRP) fell 8.21% to $2.27, Solana (SOL) slid 8.49% to around $141. Binance Coin (BNB) dropped 5.36%, Dogecoin (DOGE) 7.47%, and Cardano (ADA) 8.23%, with the market broadly showing weakness. Market analysts say that recent macroeconomic uncertainty and credit risk are directly weakening investor sentiment. Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), drew a line by saying "further cuts cannot be assumed," and as prolonged shutdowns have halted the release of key economic indicators such as employment and inflation, the Fed is finding it difficult to signal policy direction, prolonging an opaque phase, which has acted as a burden. Credit risk at digital asset treasury (DAT) firms is also cited as a major negative factor. Companies that adopted DAT raised funds through issuance of convertible bonds (CB) and corporate bonds and used those funds to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum, becoming a major demand cohort that drove the crypto market's rise over the past year. However, with increased competition in capital markets due to recent expanded AI investment and increased government borrowing, pressure on credit markets is rising. Magadini, head, said "As companies adopting DAT have surged, credit demand has expanded excessively," diagnosing that "if credit markets tighten, refinancing will become difficult and they may need to sell held coins to repay debt." He warned, "If coin selling becomes widespread, a downward spiral could occur with subordinated DATs also engaging in chain selling." Liquidation pressure in the futures market also increased simultaneously, widening losses. According to CoinGlass, about $300 million worth of futures positions were forcibly liquidated on major exchanges in one hour that day. The analysis projects that if Bitcoin falls below $95,000, the cumulative long position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEX) could reach $723 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $99,000, cumulative short position liquidations are estimated at about $718 million.

Large amounts of funds have exited spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs. According to data from Trader T on the 13th (local time), U.S.-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs saw total net outflows of $867.35 million. This is the second-largest amount since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The ETF with the largest net outflows was Grayscale Mini Trust (BTC), which saw $318.2 million leave. BlackRock (IBIT) had $257.18 million, Fidelity (FBTC) $119.93 million, and Bitwise (BITB) $47.03 million in net outflows. ARK Invest (ARKB) saw $15.68 million exit, while Invesco (BTCO) and Franklin (EZBC) had $30.80 million and $5.69 million leave, respectively. VanEck (HODL) also experienced net outflows of $8.34 million. Spot Ethereum ETFs also registered total net outflows of $259.77 million. BlackRock (ETHA) had $137.37 million and Fidelity (FETH) $14.25 million in net outflows, while Invesco (QETH) saw $4.42 million leave, Grayscale ETHE $67.91 million, and Grayscale Mini (ETH) $35.82 million. Meanwhile, among Bitcoin ETFs, Valkyrie (BRRR) and WisdomTree (BTCW), and among Ethereum ETFs, Bitwise (ETHW), 21Shares (CETH), Franklin (EZET), and VanEck (ETHV) showed no net flows.

Cryptocurrencies and the gold and silver markets are showing opposite trends. On the 13th (local time), CoinDesk reported that while the recent rally in the dollar index (DXY) has stalled, major crypto asset prices including Bitcoin (BTC) have fallen sharply, whereas gold and silver prices have continued to rise. Bitcoin has fallen more than 9% this month and slipped below $100,000. Major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) also corrected by 11% to 20%. XRP fared relatively better, falling only in the 7% range. This is an unusual trend in a phase where dollar strength is easing. Typically, when the dollar index’s momentum weakens, a favorable environment is created for alternative investment assets such as Bitcoin and precious metals. But this time only gold and silver rose by 4% and 9%, respectively, highlighting a preference for "traditional safe-haven assets." The main reason cited for Bitcoin’s weakness is credit market risk. Greg Magadini, head of derivatives at Amberdata, said, "Positive developments such as the end of a government shutdown, expectations of rate cuts, and U.S.-China cooperation have already been priced into the market," adding, "Buy positions expecting a year-end rally had built up excessively, and there is a lack of new buying to absorb them, which is deepening the correction." He pointed to credit risk at digital asset treasury (DAT) firms as a key variable. DATs have been buying crypto assets with funds raised through convertible bonds, corporate bond issuances, and the like, and they were a major source of demand that drove the market higher over the past year. However, competition for funding alongside AI investment and government borrowing has increased pressure on the credit market. Magadini said, "The rapid increase in DAT establishments has led to an excessive rise in credit demand," and warned, "If the credit market tightens, DATs could struggle to refinance and may have to sell held coins to repay debt." He added, "If coin selling begins, lower-tier DATs could also sell in succession, creating a downward spiral," noting, "The risk to high-quality assets like Bitcoin is relatively low, but DATs that bought overvalued altcoins face much greater risk."

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $100,000 again, spreading a pessimistic mood across the cryptocurrency market. However, analysis shows that major on-chain indicators are instead signaling a bottom. On the 13th (local time), on-chain data analysis platform Santiment said that investor sentiment toward major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and XRP has noticeably contracted over the past few days. It explained that as prices fell in succession, retail investors shifted into a defensive posture. Santiment analyzed, "When Bitcoin slid below $100,000 for the second time this month, retail investors' fear surged," adding, "Bitcoin's positive-to-negative ratio has become unusually flat, Ethereum shows only a faint positive trend, and XRP is approaching its strongest fear period of the year." It added, "Generally when this zone is entered, short-term rebounds often occur. Prices frequently move opposite to the tone on social media." On-chain indicators also support this trend. According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) ratio fell to 0.476. This is a level that in the past has formed several short-term lows followed by double-digit rebounds. NUP entering this zone indicates that a major buying cohort is realizing losses, which is typically interpreted as a rebound threshold. Alex Kupchykebich, an FxPro analyst, said, "Attempts to form a bottom are visible, but each time a rebound appears it is blocked by strong selling pressure," adding, "This is a typical flow of a medium-term correction, not a sign of cycle collapse." Institutional investors also maintain cautious optimism. In a recent survey by asset manager Sygnum, 61% of institutions said they plan to increase their cryptocurrency allocations in anticipation of expected spot altcoin ETF approvals and regulatory changes next year. A strategist holding a large amount of Bitcoin reportedly added 487 bitcoins last week, bringing total holdings to 641,692.