Doohyun Hwang

U.S. spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced net outflows of 41.57 million dollars on the 4th (local time). In particular, a large outflow from Grayscale's flagship product 'ETHE' led the overall flow. According to Soso Value's data, the ETF with the largest net outflows that day was 'ETHE', which saw 30.96 million dollars withdrawn in one day. Fidelity's 'FETH' also saw 17.92 million dollars leave. Meanwhile, BlackRock's 'ETHA' recorded net inflows of 28.35 million dollars, making it the only major ETF to show inflows. Grayscale's 'ETH' also recorded inflows of 21.04 million dollars.

U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reportedly experienced a net outflow of $194.64 million on the 4th (local time). Large withdrawals from major ETFs significantly widened the one-day net outflow. According to data from SoSoValue, the product with the largest net outflow that day was BlackRock's 'IBIT', which saw $112.96 million leave in a single day. Fidelity's 'FBTC' also recorded a $54.20 million net outflow. That means more than $167 million was withdrawn from just those two products. Grayscale's 'GBTC' also recorded a $10.13 million net outflow, confirming an overall weak trend. On that day, Bitcoin was trading on the Binance USDT market around $91,930, down about 1.4% from the previous day.

Matrixport (Matrixport) was reported to have withdrawn 3805 Bitcoin (BTC) from Binance over the past 24 hours. On-chain data indicate that the value of that amount is approximately $352.5 million. On the 4th (local time), Bitcoin is trading on Binance's Tether (USDT) market at the $92,200 level, down 1.3% from the previous day.

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a period of increased volatility, raising the risk of large-scale liquidations at various price levels. According to data from CoinGlass on the 4th (local time), if Bitcoin surpasses 94,000 dollars, the cumulative short (short) liquidation intensity on major centralized exchanges (CEX) is estimated to reach 1,000,000,000 dollars. This means that if a strong price rebound occurs, short positions could be liquidated in a chain, causing a short-term surge. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below 91,000 dollars, the cumulative liquidation intensity of long positions on major exchanges is shown to reach 641,000,000 dollars. Analysts say that if the support level falls, long position liquidations could occur in a chain, increasing downward pressure. On that day, Bitcoin was trading at 92,570 dollars on Binance Tether (USDT) market, down 1.4% from the previous day.

J.P. Morgan said that, in short-term Bitcoin (BTC) price movements, MicroStrategy's financial health and Bitcoin holding strategy are a larger variable than miners' selling pressure. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, J.P. Morgan managing director, said in a report on the 4th (local time) that the recent weakness in Bitcoin is due to declines in the Bitcoin network's hash rate and difficulty and uncertainty related to MicroStrategy. According to the report, the recent hash rate decline is the combined result of China's emphasis on mining bans and foreign high-cost miners reducing operations as profitability worsened due to price drops and rising power costs. When the hash rate falls, miners' profitability generally improves. But J.P. Morgan explained that Bitcoin's price is still trading below production cost, prompting miners' selling pressure. J.P. Morgan currently estimates Bitcoin's production cost at $90,000 per coin, down from last month's estimate of $94,000. J.P. Morgan explained, "As rising power costs and price declines squeeze profits, some high-cost miners have recently sold their held Bitcoins." Nevertheless, J.P. Morgan emphasized that MicroStrategy's actions have a greater impact on the market than miners' selling. MicroStrategy is the publicly listed company holding the most Bitcoins in the world and has never sold any of its holdings. J.P. Morgan said, "Bitcoin's next direction depends not on miners but on MicroStrategy's financial capacity and holding strategy," and assessed that "unless MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin, the shock to the market will be limited."

Institutional capital inflows fuel price rebound Prediction markets, mobile tokens and continued ecosystem expansion Solana (SOL) has attempted a sentiment turnaround, rebounding about 14% over the past two days after a prolonged correction. The revival in investor sentiment is attributed to simultaneous highlights of increased global institutional participation expectations and ecosystem expansion tailwinds. Solana, which fell intraday to $121 on the 21st of last month, continued its uptrend since the 2nd (local time) and recovered to the $140 level. As of the 3rd, Solana was trading on the Binance Tether (USDT) market at around $144, up about 1% from the previous day. The biggest change is Franklin Templeton's listing of a Solana spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Templeton officially listed 'SOEZ' on NYSE Arca, entering the market for SOL-tracking ETFs. In particular, the ETF is structured to include staking rewards, which is seen as greatly increasing the possibility of direct inflows from institutional investors. Roger Bayson, head of digital assets at Templeton, said, "Solana is a core layer of the digital economy," adding, "Tokenized assets and next-generation financial applications are growing based on speed and efficiency." In addition, Vanguard allowing trading of crypto asset-based ETFs and mutual funds on its platform also appears to have spurred buying demand. Kalshi's onboarding of Solana to its prediction market platform is also seen as a meaningful positive. On the 2nd, Kalshi began supporting the buying and selling of tokenized prediction market betting contracts on the Solana chain. This enables users to trade existing off-chain contracts in the form of Solana-based tokens, greatly expanding anonymity and liquidity. DeFi DFlow and Jupiter act as bridges to connect Kalshi's order book with the Solana ecosystem. Kalshi explained, "Prediction market demand is rapidly increasing, and we chose Solana to absorb trillions of dollars of crypto liquidity." The industry expects that, with prediction market trading volume approaching $28 billion this year, the news will lead to increased demand and liquidity for the Solana ecosystem. Expansion of the Solana mobile ecosystem is also stimulating investor sentiment. Solana developer 'Solana Labs' recently announced it will launch the native token 'SKR' of its mobile ecosystem in January next year. The total supply will be 10 billion tokens, of which 30% will be distributed via airdrops. Airdrop recipients will include users of the Solana mobile device 'Seeker' and on-chain dApp participants. If ecosystem activity for SKR distribution increases, it is expected to have a positive effect on Solana's price. Seeker has already recorded over 150,000 pre-orders, and shipments are reportedly underway to more than 50 countries. The device is expected to target ecosystem expansion by coming with built-in blockchain-related features such as secure storage, a built-in dApp store, and an on-chain genesis token. The concrete vision for SKR will be unveiled at 'Breakpoint 2025' in Abu Dhabi later this month.

Bitcoin (BTC) quickly rebounded after a sharp plunge and recovered the $93,000 level. Analysts say that easing U.S. policy uncertainty and changes in the attitude of traditional finance have combined to calm investor sentiment. Bitcoin, which had been pushed down into the $80,000 range on the 21st of last month, reclaimed the $93,000 level on the 2nd (local time). With a liquidation-driven market phase ending, downward pressure eased, and signs of an improving policy environment overlapped, bringing in buying demand. Remarks by a U.S. financial regulator acted as a stabilizing factor for the market. Paul Atkins, a commissioner of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), recently said, "We will soon release detailed guidance related to an 'innovation exemption' for digital asset firms." The interpretation is that the likelihood of regulatory clarity sought by the industry being provided has increased. In addition, Michelle Bowman, a vice chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed), told a congressional hearing, "We will actively cooperate in the establishment of stablecoin issuance guidelines," expressing a stance to strengthen management and supervisory frameworks within the institutional system. Markets interpreted this as a signal that the emphasis had shifted toward management rather than stricter regulation. A recovery in institutional demand also supported the rebound. Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset manager, began selling ETFs and mutual funds containing major crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Solana on its platform from that day. This is effectively a policy shift from the prior stance of avoiding market entry due to "high volatility." Spot Bitcoin ETF trading also surged. BlackRock's 'IBIT' recorded trading volume of about $3.7 billion that day, surpassing Vanguard's flagship ETF 'VOO' ($3.28 billion). Related stocks such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), Robinhood (HOOD), and Circle (CRLC) also rose 6%, 2%, and 4% respectively, successfully rebounding. Jasper de Meyer, a Wintermute analyst, said, "With industry positive developments concentrated, crypto is again following the broader market trend." Brandon Feagan, a Bloomberg market analyst, said, "The recent rally is the market moving out of a liquidation-centered phase and back toward a preference for risk assets," adding, "The institution-centric market foundation has become much more solid than in recent weeks."

The U.S. Solana (SOL) spot ETF recorded net inflows of $45.77 million on the 2nd (local time). According to SoSoValue's data that day, the product that attracted the most funds was Bitwise's 'BSOL', which saw $29.45 million flow in during the day. BSOL's cumulative net inflows reached $574 million. Fidelity's 'FSOL' followed with $6.92 million. FSOL's cumulative net inflows were recorded at $39.22 million. Currently, the total net asset value of Solana spot ETFs is $930 million, SOL's net asset ratio is 1.20%, and cumulative net inflows are $651 million.

XRP has barely held the $2 level after the recent market plunge, but on-chain data shows whale buying at its highest level in seven years. However, technical indicators still point to weakness. On the 2nd (local time), on-chain analytics platform Santiment reported that despite the number of XRP whale wallets holding more than 100 million decreasing by 20.6% over the past eight weeks, total holdings stood at 48 billion, the highest in seven years. This suggests large investors used XRP's price weakness as a buying opportunity. Whale deposit flows to exchanges on Binance have also remained stable. Over the past month, whale wallets' exchange transfers averaged around 1,000 per day. According to CryptoQuant, buy volume in the spot market exceeded sell volume for three consecutive weeks, showing an improving supply-demand trend. Meanwhile, technical signals are mixed. AMB Crypto analyzed that "XRP's Relative Vigor Index (RVI) has fallen to -0.02, indicating sustained strong selling pressure." The RVI is an indicator that measures trend direction and momentum; a drop below 0 can signal a shift to bearishness. AMB Crypto forecasted that "if XRP falls below the $2 support again, $1.9 would be the next lower support zone." As of the 2nd, XRP was trading in the $2 range on Binance's Tether (USDT) market, about 6% higher than the previous day.

A large additional purchase of Ethereum (ETH) by BitMine has been detected. On the 2nd (local time), on-chain data showed that a wallet believed to be owned by BitMine received a transfer of 18,345 Ethereum (about $55.25 million) from custody firm BitGo. This transfer coincides with BitMine's recent aggressive accumulation of Ethereum. Earlier, BitMine said it had additionally purchased 96,798 Ethereum last week, raising its cumulative holdings to 3,726,499. This exceeds about 3% of the total Ethereum supply, representing roughly two-thirds of the company's stated target of 'holding 5% of the supply.' As of the 30th of last month, BitMine held, in addition to ETH, 192 Bitcoin (BTC), $882 million in cash, $36 million in shares of Nasdaq-listed EightCo Holdings, among others, totaling $12.1 billion in crypto and cash-equivalent assets. Meanwhile, Ethereum is trading at $2,998 on the Binance Tether (USDT) market, up 8% from the previous day.

Stablecoin-based global payments fintech RedotPay has entered a partnership with Ripple and is launching a feature that instantly settles virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) into Nigeria's naira (NGN). On the 2nd (local time), Ripple said, "Through this collaboration RedotPay will integrate Ripple's enterprise cross-border payments solution 'Ripple Payments,'" and added, "We have officially introduced the 'Send Crypto, Receive NGN' feature, which allows verified users who transfer virtual assets such as XRP to receive NGN into local bank accounts within minutes." According to Ripple, current global remittance fees average 6.49% and it takes 1~5 business days for payments to be completed. In contrast, this feature implements transparent pricing and settlement within minutes by leveraging blockchain-based speed and infrastructure. Supported assets include USDC·USDT·Bitcoin(BTC)·Ethereum(ETH)·Solana(SOL)·Tron(TRX)·XRP, and Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD will be included in the future. Jack Cullinane, Head of Commercial, Asia Pacific at Ripple, said, "The partnership with RedotPay demonstrates the real utility of Ripple's payments solution in solving the structural inefficiencies of cross-border remittances." Michael Gao, co-founder and CEO of RedotPay, said, "Low-cost NGN payments processed almost instantly are a meaningful milestone," and "The adoption of Ripple Payments will accelerate global expansion."

Ethereum(ETH) has reclaimed the $3,000 level, but the market still views Ethereum's short-term direction negatively. On the 2nd (local time), according to Cointelegraph, Ethereum's futures premium remained at around an annual 3%. Considering that it usually forms above 5% in a bull market, leveraged long (buy) demand has effectively disappeared. After a 22% plunge over the past 30 days, investors appear hesitant to expand positions. In fact, the sentiment in ETH derivatives and options markets remains cautious. In the options market, put option (sell) prices are formed at a 6% premium compared to call options (buy). On-chain indicators also reflect this mood. Ethereum network fees totaled $2.6 million over the past 7 days, marking the lowest level in three years. DEX trading volume fell from $36.2 billion in August to $13.4 billion recently. By contrast, Tron(TRX)·Solana(SOL) increased fee revenues by 9% over the same period, enhancing their competitiveness. Some whale movements also fueled concern. About 40,000 ETH that had not moved for 10 years were suddenly transferred to another address, raising the possibility of selling. The 'Fusaka' upgrade aimed at improving Ethereum's scalability is also scheduled, but with dApp demand and network utilization slowing, assessments say Ethereum's momentum to generate excess returns over the market is not yet clear.

Bitcoin prices rebounded immediately after a sharp plunge, leading to a surge in trading of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. market. On the 2nd (local time), according to CoinDesk, BlackRock's 'IBIT' posted one of the top trading volumes among all U.S. ETFs that day. IBIT's trading value was about $3.7 billion, surpassing Vanguard's flagship S&P 500-tracking ETF 'VOO' ($3.28 billion). IBIT, which was launched less than two years ago, has net assets of $66.3 billion, making it the largest contributor to revenue among BlackRock's ETFs. BlackRock manages more than 1,400 ETFs, and its total assets under management (AUM) amount to $13.4 trillion. Related companies' stock prices also rebounded across the board. MicroStrategy (MSTR), which holds 174,000 bitcoins, rose 6%. Robinhood (HOOD) rose 2%, Bullish (BLSH), the parent company of CoinDesk, rose 5%, and USDC issuer Circle (CRLC) rose 4%. Meanwhile, Coinbase (COIN) fell 5%. This follows a lawsuit filed earlier by some shareholders against management alleging they "sold overvalued shares for years after listing, deceiving investors." The mining sector remained weak. Iren (IREN) plunged 15%, Cipher Mining (CIFR) fell 10%, and Terawulf (WULF) dropped 7%.

Interview with CJ Hedderington, Limitless Co-founder and CEO Prediction market platform ranked No.1 in Base ecosystem transaction volume Cumulative trading surpasses $500 million·Secured $10 million seed "Korea, 30% presale participation…Strengthening K-pop prediction markets" Limitless is a prediction market platform built on Base, the Ethereum layer-2 (L2) developed by global crypto exchange Coinbase. It is regarded as a rapidly growing project within the Base ecosystem, with cumulative trading volume surpassing $500 million. Ahead of the token 'LMTS' launch, it has completed a seed investment round of $10 million, drawing growing interest from global institutions. CJ Hedderington, Limitless co-founder and CEO, told Bloomingbit in an interview on the 2nd that "the goal is to implement a user experience (UX) so simple that users don't even think about the concept of Web3," and added, "we continuously observe which topics global communities show interest in." Explosive growth through time-unit prediction markets Prediction markets convert the 'probability of occurrence' of various events—political, economic, social—into prices, and users bet on those probabilities to earn returns. Because they operate on a blockchain, all votes and trades are transparently recorded on the ledger, reducing the risk of manipulation. This market has recently shown rapid global growth. According to blockchain analytics firm Dune Analytics, as of last October the weekly trading volume of global blockchain-based prediction markets exceeded $2 billion, reaching an all-time high. Against this trend, Limitless reinterpreted the prediction market structure on a 'time-unit' basis and established itself as a top project in the Base ecosystem. CEO Hedderington said the basis for Limitless's growth is, "all of our decision-making is grounded in an experimental spirit. The internal rule is to test as many assumptions as possible, as quickly as possible, and in as few steps as possible," adding, "initially we experimented with user-generated markets, but scaling created bottlenecks so the team began creating various markets directly." The strongest response in this process was the 'weekly price prediction' market. He said, "The weekly price prediction market received a positive response," and explained, "there was a suggestion that opening markets on a daily basis would improve retention. In fact, offering 'daily price prediction' markets led to a surge in trading activity within Limitless." He added, "From this summer we focused on time-unit markets predicting the 'price one hour later' for major assets, and growth accelerated once again." This strategy led to improvements in user metrics. He emphasized, "7-day retention is 44%, and the ratio of daily active users (DAU) to monthly active users (MAU) also reaches 79%," noting, "short expirations, repeatable actions, and leverage effects achievable with small amounts greatly increase user engagement." He continued, "Time-unit markets always give the feeling that something is 'in progress,' which naturally brings users back to the platform," and added, "recently we have even launched products with even shorter expirations." "Korea, 30% presale participation…Expansion of dedicated markets" Limitless recently raised $200 million through a presale ahead of its token launch. CEO Hedderington said, "This presale was a typical 'community-first' structure where the community received even better terms than institutions and venture capital (VC)," and emphasized, "in particular, 30% of the total raised came from Korean investors. This is a higher share than any other country." He explained, "We were watching the Korean market even before the presale, but this data gave us the conviction that we can go much deeper into Korea," adding, "Korea's share in web traffic is also rapidly increasing." On this basis, Limitless prepared dedicated prediction markets themed on Korean culture. CEO Hedderington said, "We are actively engaging with the community to recraft topics around what Korean users actually want to trade and what information they want to 'predict,'" and added, "we currently offer various polls on K-pop, popular culture, politics, and more." He said, "We are expanding topics that Korean users can relate to, such as markets predicting the annual performance outcomes of K-pop groups like NewJeans," and expressed confidence, "in the long term, we will become a platform that can read events happening in Korea the fastest, from K-pop and sports to esports and politics." Derma Horshikov, Limitless co-founder, said, "With a small team we can't target every category at once, so we chose a strategy of focusing and growing them one by one," and requested, "we would like Korean users to actively suggest 'markets they'd like to see.' Even if it takes time, we will eventually create markets proposed by users within Limitless." He added, "We are building an extremely simple derivatives interface that allows users to experience up to 3,000x leverage without understanding complex structures like options or perps," and added, "we want to grow prediction markets into the 'world's largest and most fun exchange' together with the Korean community."

Infrared disclosed on the 1st its eight-month performance and future roadmap since the Berachain mainnet launch. Infrared is a liquid staking protocol founded on the Proof of Liquidity (PoL) model, regarded as the next-generation structure of decentralized finance (DeFi). Infrared has recorded rapid growth across key metrics since the Berachain mainnet launch in February this year. In April, total value locked (TVL) surpassed $2 billion. The supply of the liquidity staking token 'iBGT', issued when depositing Berachain's token BGT, has expanded to about 16 million, significantly increasing adoption within the Berachain ecosystem. Infrared operates 167 of Berachain's 193 vaults, serving as key infrastructure that determines the direction of PoL rewards. Currently, Berachain's daily BGT issuance is around 3,946. Protocol architecture enhancement is also accelerating. Infrared has carried out more than five major upgrades since mainnet to improve user experience and increase PoL utilization. In addition, many vaults offer double-digit, and some PoL vaults offer triple-digit annual returns. This expansion is leading to network effects across the ecosystem through partnerships and integrations with various protocols within Berachain. Infrared said, "We recently ended the points program and are preparing to enter the next growth phase," adding, "Infrared plans to focus on deepening integration with Berachain's economic model and expanding opportunities for users and builders." It added, "PoL-based infrastructure will be a key pillar in solving DeFi's structural limitations," and "We will soon disclose more updates and expansion plans." Hankyung.com newsroom open@hankyung.com

A net inflow of $71.31 million occurred in the U.S. Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF market. On the 28th (local time), according to TraderT's data, the largest inflow was led by Ark Invest's 'ARKB', which recorded a net inflow of $88.04 million. Fidelity's 'FBTC' also saw a fresh inflow of $77.45 million, showing strong buying pressure. Meanwhile, BlackRock's IBIT experienced a net outflow of $113.77 million. In addition, no significant fund movements were observed in products from Bitwise, Invesco, Franklin, Valkyrie, VanEck, and WisdomTree.

U.S. spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days. On the 28th (local time), according to data from Trader T, U.S.-traded spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs saw net inflows of $77.1 million. The largest inflow was into BlackRock's ETHA, which received $68.82 million in one day. Grayscale's ETHE also saw net inflows of $8.28 million. On that day, products from major issuers such as Fidelity, Bitwise, Invesco, Franklin, and VanEck showed no notable fund flows.

An analysis has been raised that Bitcoin (BTC) has increasing upside potential. On the 28th (local time), Andrei Dragosh, head of Bitwise Europe research, said on his X, "The current macro environment is very similar to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic," and evaluated, "This degree of asymmetric risk-reward is the first since 2020." Dragosh said, "Bitcoin has already priced in a recession phase," and analyzed that "the most pessimistic global growth outlook since 2022 is reflected in the price." 2022 was a period when the market as a whole was hit hard by the Fed's rapid tightening and the collapse of FTX. He said, "Since most of the negative news has been reflected in the price, downside risk is limited," and predicted, "As after the pandemic, the lagged effects of prior monetary easing can support future growth. In particular, the recovery trend could continue until 2026." After breaking through its all-time high of 126,199 dollars last October, Bitcoin turned down as a large-scale liquidation of about 19 billion dollars on October 10 and President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods overlapped. In November, it fell below the psychological support level of 100,000 dollars, greatly dampening investor sentiment, and on the 20th it was pushed down to around 90,000 dollars at one point. Dragosh emphasized, "From now on, it is the time when the effects of the monetary policy the Fed has taken will be fully reflected in the market," and stressed, "Despite short-term volatility, one must not overlook the possibility of a rebound in the future." That day, Bitcoin was trading on the Binance Tether (USDT) market at the 90,800 dollars level, about 1% down from the previous day.

U.S. Solana (SOL) spot ETFs recorded net inflows again in just one day. On the 28th (local time), according to Paside Investorsr, the total net inflows for Solana spot ETFs trading in the U.S. amounted to $5.3 million. By product, Grayscale's 'GSOL' drew $4.3 million, recording the largest inflow. Fidelity's 'FSOL' also showed net inflows of $2.4 million, following behind. In contrast, 21Shares' 'TSOL' recorded a net outflow of $1.4 million, showing a contrasting trend.

U.S. XRP spot ETFs recorded net inflows of more than $20 million on the 28th (local time). According to SosoValue's data, total net inflows into XRP spot ETFs that day amounted to $22.68 million. Among them, Franklin's 'XRPZ' attracted the most funds with $10.68 million. XRPZ's cumulative net inflows reached $85.22 million. The product with the second-largest inflow was Canary Capital's 'XRPC', which received $9.07 million during the day. XRPC's cumulative net inflows were reported at $344 million. Currently, the total net asset value of XRP spot ETFs is $688 million, the XRP allocation proportion is 0.52%, and cumulative net inflows stand at $667 million.