JOON HYOUNG LEE

Last week, new unemployment benefit claims in the United States came in below market expectations. The U.S. Department of Labor announced on the 31st (local time) that the number of new unemployment benefit claims for last week was counted at 218,000. This figure is 4,000 fewer than the expert forecast of 222,000. Compared to the previous week's revised figure (217,000), it is 1,000 higher. The number of continued unemployment benefit claims, for those filing for unemployment benefits for a second consecutive week, was counted at 1,946,000, which is the same as the previous week’s revised figure. This is 14,000 fewer than the market forecast of 1,960,000. The number of new unemployment benefit claims is an indicator used to gauge whether the U.S. labor market is overheating. If unemployment benefit claims rise, it can be interpreted as a sign that an overheated labor market is cooling down. Experts are closely monitoring employment indicators such as unemployment benefit claims. This is to understand the impact of federal government restructuring led by U.S. President Donald Trump and tariff increases on corporate decision-making.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key indicator influencing the United States benchmark interest rate cuts, increased in June to surpass market expectations. The United States Department of Commerce announced that the June PCE price index rose 2.6% year-on-year. This figure exceeds the market consensus (2.5%) by 0.1 percentage points. Compared with May (2.4%), the rise widened by 0.2 percentage points. The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, increased by 2.8% over the past year. This is the same as the previous month (2.8%), but it surpasses the expert forecast (2.7%) by 0.1 percentage points. Core PCE is the indicator Fed values most when deciding the benchmark interest rate, and remains above the price target of 2%. This release drew market attention, as it was the first inflation figure published since the Fed left rates unchanged at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Scott Bessent, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, suggested the possibility of concluding the U.S.-China trade negotiations. In an interview with U.S. CNBC on the 31st (local time), Secretary Bessent stated, "There are still a few technical details remaining, but the foundation for a (U.S.-China trade) agreement has been laid," and added, "I am confident an agreement will be reached, but it is not 100% complete yet." Secretary Bessent emphasized, "We are ready to make a deal with China." He also said, "I have not yet discussed this issue with President Donald Trump," and "China is strong in negotiations, but so are we."

The price of ResearchCoin (RSC) soared following the news of its listing on the U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. Some have also raised concerns about a potential conflict of interest involving Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase. According to The Block on the 31st (local time), the price of ResearchCoin jumped nearly 15% intraday. ResearchCoin is the native token of the Web3 research community ResearchHub. As of 8:53 PM that day, ResearchCoin was trading at $0.7525, up about 12.5% from the previous day. The surge in ResearchCoin was driven by the news of its listing on Coinbase. Coinbase announced the previous day (the 30th) that it would list ResearchCoin on its Ethereum (ETH)-based Layer 2 network, 'Base.' The main issue is the concern over a conflict of interest. Brian Armstrong, the CEO, co-founded ResearchHub in 2019. Regarding this, Coinbase stated on its official X account, "ResearchCoin has no affiliation with Coinbase" and added, "Brian Armstrong does not participate in Coinbase's listing review or approval process."

U.S. President Donald Trump has once again pressed Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). On the 31st (local time), President Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social, "'Too Late Powell has done it again,'" and added, "(Chair Powell) is always too late and political, so he is not qualified to serve as Fed Chair." This criticism was made regarding the Fed's decision at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting the previous day (30th) to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25~4.50%. President Trump stressed, "(Chair Powell) is causing the United States trillions of dollars in damage." He further stated, "'Too Late' Powell is a total loser," and emphasized, "The American people are paying the ultimate price."

There is an observation that the price of Ethereum (ETH) could rise further to $4,900. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated through its official X account on the 31st (local time) that "Ethereum is trading near the peak recorded in March last year, but the unrealized profit is at a much lower level." They also mentioned the possibility of further upside. Glassnode analyzed, "(In March last year) Ethereum's 'Relative Unrealized Profit' indicator recorded +2σ and the price at that time was $3,980," adding, "However, the indicator is currently only close to +1σ." They added, "If the indicator climbs to +2σ, the price of Ethereum could rise to $4,900." Meanwhile, as of 8:01 PM on the same day, Ethereum is trading at $3,854.76 on CoinMarketCap. This is an increase of 2.2% compared to the previous day.

Donald Trump, President of the United States, said that "tariffs are making America great and wealthy again." On the 31st (local time), President Trump stated on his social media, Truth Social, "The United States has successfully fought back against tariff offensives targeting our country." President Trump emphasized, "Just a year ago, America was considered a dead nation, but now it has become the hottest country in the world." He added, "If America hadn't protected itself through 'tariffs against tariffs', we would already be dead."

An analysis indicates that downward pressure is mounting on the stock price of MicroStrategy, which holds the largest amount of Bitcoin (BTC) among publicly listed companies worldwide. CoinDesk reported on the 30th (local time), citing Market Chameleon data, that as of the day, MicroStrategy’s one-year put-call skew had risen to 3.6%. The one-year put-call skew is an indicator showing the difference in implied volatility between call and put options expiring in 12 months. Generally, the higher the put-call skew index, the more investors are betting on a decline in stock price. CoinDesk stated, “(3.6%) is the highest since April 17.” MicroStrategy shares have recently struggled. CoinDesk said, “On this day, MicroStrategy stock dropped 14% in two weeks to $292,” and “the closing price also finished just below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).”

Paul Atkins, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), commented on the White House’s cryptocurrency report by stating, "It essentially reflects the convictions I have long maintained." On the 30th (local time), Chairman Atkins released an official statement, saying, "The (cryptocurrency) policy recommendations presented by the White House are the result of months of cooperation among various agencies." He also stated, "We jointly developed a blueprint to achieve President Donald Trump’s vision of making the United States the center of the global cryptocurrency market." Previously, the U.S. White House published a report outlining its policy stance on cryptocurrencies. Atkins stated, "The cryptocurrency report essentially reflects the convictions I have long maintained," and added, "A rational regulatory framework for digital assets is the best way to foster U.S. innovation, protect investors, and make our capital markets the envy of the world." He continued, "The SEC will utilize its existing authority to establish new rules and regulations, and will enforce all new laws enacted by Congress to continue playing a key role in building the (cryptocurrency) federal system." He reiterated the commitment to fostering the cryptocurrency industry. Chairman Atkins emphasized, "We must maximize the innovative potential of digital asset technology, ensure financial stability, and protect investors," highlighting that "in line with the (cryptocurrency) report, we will prioritize the development of forward-looking regulations that foster innovation while mitigating risks." He added, "The United States must do more than simply keep pace with the speed of the cryptocurrency revolution."

Ethereum (ETH) has broken its record for the highest monthly growth rate in three years. Cointelegraph reported on the 31st (local time), citing crypto market platform CoinGecko data, that Ethereum’s price surged by approximately 56% in July. Cointelegraph noted, “Ethereum posted a monthly gain of more than 50% for the first time in three years after soaring 56.62% in July 2022.” Institutional investor inflows are considered a major factor behind the rise in Ethereum’s price. The United States Ethereum spot ETF recorded 19 consecutive days of net capital inflows this month. So far this month, the total net inflow into the Ethereum spot ETF is $5.37 billion. Cointelegraph stated, “(The 19 consecutive days of inflow) approaches the longest streak of net inflows in history.”

The financial authorities will prepare guidelines related to virtual asset lending services by next month. The Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service announced that on the 31st, together with the Digital Asset eXchange Alliance (DAXA) and five virtual asset exchanges, they have formed a task force (TF) at the Government Complex Seoul to establish 'Guidelines for Virtual Asset Lending Services' and held the first meeting. The TF plans to complete the guidelines by next month. The contents and progress of these guidelines will be reflected in the phase 2 virtual asset legislation. The financial authorities launched the TF due to concerns over insufficient investor protection mechanisms for virtual asset lending services. Recently, South Korea’s two major exchanges, Upbit and Bithumb, have successively introduced virtual asset lending services. However, there have been ongoing concerns that users could incur significant losses if the price of lent virtual assets fluctuates sharply. Accordingly, the guidelines are expected to specify details regarding virtual asset lending services. The industry anticipates that the guidelines will address matters such as whether leverage is permitted, the scope of eligible users, the range of lendable virtual assets, and disclosure plans for lending status by asset. Meanwhile, the authorities requested at the meeting that domestic virtual asset exchanges reconsider services with high user damage risk, such as leverage offerings, and those with legal risks including monetary lending.

Bo Hines, Executive Secretary of the U.S. White House Digital Assets Advisory Committee, stated that the U.S. Federal Government is "currently pursuing" a plan to hold reserves of Bitcoin (BTC). In an interview with Crypto in America on the 30th (local time), Hines said, "We recognize the importance of strategic Bitcoin reserves" and promised, "We’ll deliver achievements for Bitcoin and the Bitcoin community." He added, "There are many ways we could potentially hold (Bitcoin) reserves," and "People will be very pleased with the direction we’re heading." Earlier, the White House released an official report outlining its cryptocurrency policy directions. According to the report, the U.S. Department of the Treasury will not sell seized Bitcoin but instead hold it as a strategic asset. However, reserves of Bitcoin at the federal government level were not specifically mentioned in the report.

The US Fed's continued cautious stance on rate cuts has prompted analysis suggesting that the bullish momentum for Bitcoin (BTC) could slow down. Nick Luck, Director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph on the 30th (local time), "If the Fed maintains its cautious stance, the pace of the Bitcoin bull market could decelerate," adding, "However, fundamental liquidity growth will eventually provide a floor to support a rebound." Earlier, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed, made hawkish (pro-tightening) comments regarding the possibility of a rate cut in September, during a press conference held that day. Powell stated, "Neither I nor most of the (Fed) committee members believe that currently restrictive monetary policy is inappropriately restraining the (US) economy," and "the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) currently considers it still appropriate to maintain a 'modestly' restrictive policy."

The amount of Ethereum (ETH) held by institutional investors has exceeded $10 billion (approximately ₩13.9 trillion). On the 31st (local time), BeInCrypto reported, citing data from Strategic ETH Reserve, that the amount of Ethereum held by institutional investors reached $10.5 billion as of that day. Institutional Ethereum holdings rose dramatically over the past month from $3 billion at the end of June to $10.5 billion on the given date, an increase of nearly $7.5 billion. It is expected that the number of institutions adopting Ethereum as a strategic asset will continue to grow. Silvina Moschini, Chief Strategy Officer (CSO) of Unicoin, told BeInCrypto, "What large institutions seek when entering the (crypto) market is fairness and proven completeness," adding, "Ethereum's decentralized structure, stable uptime, and strong security track record meet institutional demands."

US Nasdaq-listed company Fundamental Global is seeking to raise $200 million (approximately ₩280 billion) to accumulate Ethereum (ETH) reserves. Fundamental Global announced on the 30th (local time) that it has changed its company name to 'FG Nexus' and is launching a new fundraising round worth $200 million. US cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, as well as Galaxy Digital and Kenetic, are investing in Fundamental Global’s new fundraising round. Fundamental Global will allocate the newly raised funds to invest in Ethereum. A representative from Fundamental Global stated, "(The $200 million fundraising) is a measure to initiate an Ethereum financial strategy," adding, "The proceeds from this public offering will be used for the purchase of Ethereum, which will serve as a core financial reserve asset."

World Liberty Financial (WLFI) stated that "Ethereum (ETH) is a technology for building next-generation financial systems." On the 30th (local time), World Liberty Financial announced through its official X (formerly Twitter) account, "We always confidently buy Ethereum at its peak," as quoted above. World Liberty Financial is a cryptocurrency project of the Donald Trump family. Meanwhile, Ethereum marked the 10th anniversary of its mainnet launch on this day. CoinDesk reported, "Ethereum, which first appeared on July 30, 2015, did not just aim to become another cryptocurrency," adding, "If Bitcoin (BTC) has established itself as 'digital gold,' then Ethereum has pursued the vision of becoming a decentralized 'world computer.'"

In the second quarter of this year, the U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Kraken saw its revenue increase by 18% compared to a year ago. According to Bloomberg and other foreign media on the 30th (local time), Kraken announced that its revenue for the second quarter of this year was recorded at $412 million. This represents an increase of 18% compared to the same period last year. Adjusted operating profit, excluding items such as taxes, was $79.7 million, down 7% from a year ago. Bloomberg reported that “it was due to investment in new product development and expansion into overseas markets.” Trading volume for the second quarter was $186.8 billion, up 19% YoY. The number of accounts with funds deposited reached 4.4 million as of Q2, a 37% increase from a year earlier. Arjun Sethi, Kraken’s co-CEO, said, “We are broadly expanding our market share.” Meanwhile, Kraken is pushing for an initial public offering (IPO) with a target of the first quarter next year. Kraken's target company valuation is $15 billion.

The White House has released a fact sheet of its 'crypto report.' However, there was no mention of Bitcoin (BTC) reserves included in the release. On the 30th (local time), Bloomberg reported that the White House unveiled the fact sheet for the crypto report. The White House plans to announce the full report at 3:30 a.m. KST on the 31st. According to Bloomberg, "The White House has urged federal regulators to exercise their authority, provide clearer rules for digital asset trading, and facilitate the introduction of new financial products." However, the fact sheet made no mention of Bitcoin (BTC) reserves at the federal government level. CoinDesk stated, "(The fact sheet) did not include details about the federal government’s progress or plans to hold digital assets like Bitcoin," and added, "But for the crypto industry, which has seen more than ten years of regulatory uncertainty, the process of rules taking shape is still striking."

As the U.S. economy showed signs of recovery in the second quarter, President Donald Trump again pressured the Fed to lower interest rates. On the 30th (local time), President Trump posted on his social media, Truth Social, saying, "(The U.S.) second-quarter GDP was much better than expected" and insisted, "Now is the time to cut rates immediately." He added, "There is no inflation," and argued, "(By cutting rates) people will be able to buy homes and refinance." The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the preliminary growth rate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter was recorded at 3.0% (quarter-on-quarter annualized). This far exceeds the estimated potential growth rate in the low 2% range and also greatly surpasses experts' forecasts (2.3%) compiled by Dow Jones.

Global investment bank (IB) JP Morgan and US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase have entered into a partnership. JP Morgan announced on the 30th (local time) that it had established a strategic partnership with Coinbase. The goal of this partnership is to strengthen the integration of services between JP Morgan and Coinbase. Specifically, the partnership will enhance connectivity between JP Morgan accounts and Coinbase wallets. Coinbase also plans to offer a service within the third quarter of this year that will allow users to directly fund their platform accounts via JP Morgan credit cards. Next year, a feature that enables direct transfers of assets from JP Morgan accounts to Coinbase wallets will be added. In addition, a function will be introduced allowing users to use JP Morgan's 'Chase Ultimate Rewards' points at a 1:1 ratio to purchase cryptocurrency.

This month, the increase in private employment in the U.S. far exceeded market expectations. Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a U.S. employment data company, announced on the 30th (local time) that new private sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 104,000 in July compared to the previous month. This figure is significantly above the expert forecast of 64,000 compiled by Dow Jones. Service sector jobs—including construction (15,000), financial activities (28,000), and leisure and hospitality (46,000)—rose by a total of 74,000, which contributed to the employment rebound. The wage growth rate remained at 4.4% for the fourth consecutive month. Last month’s private sector new hires were revised from a previously reported decrease of 33,000 jobs to a decrease of 23,000 jobs compared to the previous month. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, said about this month’s figures, “They broadly suggest a healthy economy,” and added, “Employers are more optimistic about consumers, who are the backbone of the economy, maintaining their resilience.” Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Labor is set to release its employment report on the 1st of next month. Experts expect that U.S. nonfarm employment will increase by 100,000 jobs in July.

The U.S. economy, which experienced negative growth in the first quarter of this year, regained its growth momentum in the second quarter. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 30th (local time) that the advance estimate for the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in Q2 was recorded at 3.0% (quarter-on-quarter annualized rate). This figure is significantly above the potential growth rate, which is estimated to be in the low 2% range, and also far exceeds the expert forecast compiled by Dow Jones (2.3%). Previously, U.S. GDP posted a negative growth rate of 0.5% in Q1 due to a temporary increase in imports ahead of tariff imposition. The reduction in this temporary inventory build-up factor, leading to a decrease in imports, is cited as the main reason for the GDP growth rate recovery in Q2. Meanwhile, unlike South Korea, the United States announces GDP statistics by converting the quarter-on-quarter growth rate into an annualized rate.

The United States is imposing a 25% high tariff on India. President Donald Trump announced on the 30th (local time) via his social media platform Truth Social, "We are seeing a huge trade deficit with India" and "Starting August 1, we will impose a 25% tariff and additional penalties on India." President Trump emphasized, "India's tariffs are excessively high," and added, "Non-tariff trade barriers are also harsher and more objectionable than in any other country in the world." President Trump continued, "India has purchased the majority of its military equipment from Russia and, along with China, is a major purchaser of Russian energy," stating, "At a time when the world is demanding that Russia stop the massacres it is committing in Ukraine, this is by no means desirable."

President Donald Trump of the United States emphasized that he would not extend the tariff negotiation deadline scheduled for the 1st of next month. On the 30th (local time), President Trump stated on his social media, Truth Social, "The August 1 deadline is the deadline," and stressed, "This is firm and will not be extended." He underscored his intention not to exceed the previously set August 1 trade negotiation deadline. President Trump added, "(August 1) is a significant day for the United States." Meanwhile, the United States and China reached a tentative agreement on the previous day (29th) to extend the high tariff moratorium for 90 days in the 'second truce.' Scott Besant, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, said in a CNBC interview on the same day, "(Both countries) could hold additional meetings within 90 days."

An analysis has emerged showing that speculative pressure in the Bitcoin (BTC) futures market is on the decline. ShayanMarkets, a contributor at CryptoQuant, stated on the 30th via CryptoQuant, "Although Bitcoin is trading near the $123,000 mark, the 'trading volume bubble map' is at a neutral or cooling-off stage," adding, "This suggests that speculative pressure in the futures market is decreasing." ShayanMarkets explained, "The fact that (Bitcoin) prices remain high while futures trading volume decreases means that investors are deleveraging and engaging in 'de-risking.'" ShayanMarkets emphasized that Bitcoin's upward trend could resume in earnest. ShayanMarkets analyzed, "On-chain indicators show that after a (speculative) frenzy, this kind of genuine demand is generally interpreted as a healthy sign," adding, "(Recently) the price increase is being sustained by real demand rather than excessive leverage." He further commented, "If the trend of low speculative intensity continues, Bitcoin could regain upward momentum and move toward new all-time highs."

For the first time ever, the XRP futures trading volume on the U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Kraken has surpassed that of Solana (SOL) futures. According to CoinDesk on the 30th (local time), the XRP futures trading volume on Kraken this month totaled approximately $3.48 billion. That is $250 million more than Solana's futures trading volume of $3.23 billion. CoinDesk reported, "This is the first time that XRP has surpassed Solana in Kraken's futures trading volume." The increase in XRP futures trading volume is attributed to a strong price rally that began this month. CoinDesk stated, "The price of XRP has surged by more than 40% just this month, while Solana’s increase during the same period was only 17%." Alexia Theodore, Kraken’s Head of Derivatives, explained, "(The rise in XRP futures trading volume) reflects renewed optimism toward XRP," adding, "With the resolution of the lawsuit between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), market confidence in XRP has grown."

There are observations that the so-called 'altcoin season' may fully begin in the third quarter of this year. According to Cointelegraph on the 30th (local time), the Swiss-based cryptocurrency bank Signum Bank stated in a report on this day that, "Due to surging institutional demand, Ethereum (ETH) has completely escaped the prolonged bear market," and added that, "(In the third quarter) changes in market dynamics may trigger an altcoin season." Signum Bank also noted that, "With the clarification of (cryptocurrency) regulations, investment in altcoins may increase, resulting in capital flowing toward projects with real economic use cases and sustainable token models," and added, "Such changes may already be underway." There was also a warning about overheating in meme coin investments. Signum Bank stated in the report that, "The (upward) momentum of altcoins may trigger a meme coin investment frenzy," and predicted, "Historically, when such bubbles continue, they have often ended in a sharp correction."