Fierce competition from latecomers and CBDCs Profitability concerns amid rate cut trends There is growing market attention as analysis emerges that the corporate value of dollar-based stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL), listed on the US stock market, is overvalued. According to Investing.com on the 15th (local time), Circle closed at $204.70, up 9.27% from the previous day. Since its listing on the New York Stock Exchange on June 4 (local time), it has soared 560.32% compared to its IPO price ($31) in just over a month. The surge in share price is attributed to the passage of the stablecoin regulation 'GENIUS Act' by the US Senate on June 17. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent projected, "Based on the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin market will reach $3.7 trillion within the next 5 years." However, despite expectations for stablecoin market growth, there is analysis that Circle's share price is excessively high. on the 8th, Mizuho Securities said in a report, "Circle's current share price is overvalued relative to its long-term profitability outlook," assigning an investment rating of 'Underperform', and set the target price at $85. JPMorgan also set a target price of $80 for Circle, stating, "Despite market growth prospects, there are long-term risks for Circle." Many competitors: late entrants in finance sector and CBDCs The main risks commonly identified by Mizuho Securities and JPMorgan are intensifying competition in the stablecoin market. While former President Trump's pro-crypto policies could have a positive effect on Circle's share price, analysis suggests new market entries by large corporations could hinder the expansion of USDC's market share. A particularly major risk stems from the participation of traditional financial institutions, which have a solid customer base and infrastructure. JPMorgan has already issued its own stablecoin, JPM Coin (JPMD), and large banks such as Bank of America and Citigroup are also said to be preparing for market entry. Leading retailers have joined in as well. According to the Financial Times, major distribution giants such as Walmart and Amazon are considering issuing their own stablecoins. Combined, these two companies recorded first-quarter sales of $321.3 billion this year, so if their own stablecoins are used for payments, this could significantly affect the market landscape. Other major competitors include tokenized deposit accounts and tokenized money market funds (MMF), which are digital financial products. These offer experiences using blockchain-based digital dollars and, unlike stablecoins, provide both interest and legal security to investors. JPMorgan warned, "Stablecoins do not provide investors with returns, whereas tokenized financial products from financial institutions offer both profitability and stability—they could take USDC's market share." Moves towards issuing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in other countries are also a long-term threat. On June 28, the European Union (EU) announced a draft bill for the introduction of a digital euro CBDC within the year. In addition, China, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates are also pursuing CBDC adoption. CBDCs, having the same legal status as fiat currency as they are issued by central banks, may replace stablecoins in various areas such as international trade and retail payments. JPMorgan stated, "The trend toward CBDC adoption outside the US will be an obstacle for the global adoption of USDC, and especially if CBDCs are widely introduced in Europe, this could seriously impact Circle's long-term growth and profitability." Trump rate cut pressure... profitability concerns The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) further supports the negative outlook. Mizuho Securities commented, "Circle's projected 2027 sales of $4.5 billion, as suggested by several securities firms, assumes high interest rates and a high USDC adoption rate, which is unlikely to be achieved in reality." Circle secures most USDC reserves with US Treasuries, and the interest income generated from these is a key revenue source. If rates drop, Treasury yields fall and Circle's revenues decrease. With recent persistent rate cut pressure from former President Trump and dovish remarks from the Fed, the market expects possible cuts as early as September, reinforcing the anticipation of a slowdown in Circle's revenue over the long term. Stagnant USDC adoption and low margins have also been cited as issues. Mizuho Securities explained, "USDC supply has plateaued at about $62 billion since last April, and most of Circle's revenue is distributed to partners such as Coinbase, so the margin rate has plummeted from 61% in 2023 to 39% earlier this year." Accordingly, caution is advised for domestic investors as well. According to the Korea Securities Depository, Circle was the most net purchased stock by domestic investors in the US stock market in the past month (June 12–July 11), with net purchases reaching $639.45 million over the period. Kyu Jin Kim, CEO of Tiger Research, commented, "Circle's long-term growth prospects for USDC are promising, but a considerable amount of optimism might already be priced in. A more cautious and conservative investment stance is recommended."
July 15PiCK