Trump's 'Reciprocal Tariff' Policy Announcement Bitcoin Plummets to $82,000 US Imposes Reciprocal Tariffs on 60 Countries Including Korea Inflation Concerns Rise, Interest Rate Cut Possibility Drops Geopolitical Risks Intensify...China and Canada Warn of Retaliation Long-term Positive Outlook for Bitcoin The virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market is experiencing a sharp decline following President Donald Trump's tariff announcement. It is interpreted that the investment sentiment has been suppressed due to the announcement of a reciprocal tariff policy at a higher level than the market expected. As of 11:15 PM (KST) on the 3rd, according to the virtual asset data platform CoinMarketCap, the leading virtual asset Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $82,024, down 4.01% from the previous day. Bitcoin had risen to $88,000 the previous day but plummeted to the $82,000 level immediately after President Trump's tariff announcement in the early morning. Altcoins experienced a larger decline. At the same time, Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $1,762, down 5.62% from the previous day. It fell below the psychological resistance level of $1,800 once again since the 31st. Other major altcoins such as XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Pi Network (PI) also recorded weak performances. Amid continued market weakness due to macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks since the beginning of the year, Trump's tariff bomb has exploded, leaving many coins that have plummeted more than 50% compared to last year. Projects like NEO and Mask Network (MASK), which experienced significant declines, have recognized the seriousness of the current situation and announced emergency measures. Stronger-than-Expected US Tariff Policy This virtual asset market crash was triggered by President Trump's tariff policy. Earlier, President Trump announced in a speech at the White House Rose Garden around 5 AM that "the US will impose a basic tariff of 10% on all imported goods and apply reciprocal tariffs to about 60 trading countries." Reciprocal tariff rates were set by country: △China 34%, △European Union (EU) 20%, △Vietnam 46%, △Taiwan 32%, △Japan 24%, △India 26%, △Thailand 36%, △Switzerland 31%, △Indonesia 32%, △Malaysia 24%, △Cambodia 49%, △United Kingdom 10%, △South Africa 30%. South Korea, which had previously signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the US, is also expected to be subject to a 26% reciprocal tariff. Yoo Sang-dae, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Korea, diagnosed that "the US's reciprocal tariff measures are stronger than expected in terms of high country-specific tariff rates and the wide range of target countries," and "there is a very high possibility that financial market volatility will increase depending on the future developments and responses of major countries." Why US Reciprocal Tariffs Are Fatal to Virtual Assets ① Inflation Concerns Rise...Possibility of Interest Rate Cuts Decreases First, the possibility of price increases within the US due to tariffs is expected to worsen the investment sentiment in virtual assets. If inflation rises in the market due to the application of reciprocal tariffs, the possibility of interest rate cuts decreases, and market liquidity and investment sentiment are likely to become rigid. Once tariffs begin, prices in the US are bound to face upward pressure. The US has so far imported phones, electronics, machinery, textiles, wood, etc., at low prices from Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, where labor costs are relatively low, rather than from the US, where labor costs are high. However, if tariffs are imposed, the prices of these imports will rise. If inflation occurs in the US due to this, it is expected to disrupt the Federal Reserve's (Fed) plans for interest rate cuts. It will become increasingly difficult to implement interest rate cuts to achieve the annual inflation target. ② Concerns of Real Economy Recession...Negative for Virtual Assets The recession of the real economy in countries subject to tariffs is also likely to act as a negative factor for the virtual asset market. US reciprocal tariffs target countries that have a trade surplus with the US. Tariff rates were set according to the size of the trade surplus. The higher the US trade dependency and surplus ratio, the higher the tariff applied. Therefore, if the trade volume decreases due to reciprocal tariffs, the GDP of the affected countries may also decrease. For example, Vietnam recorded $123.463 billion (about 124.5606 trillion won) in trade with the US in 2024, which amounts to 26% of Vietnam's 2024 GDP ($476.3 billion). Kim Jin-il, a professor of economics at Korea University, explained, "(Such large-scale tariffs) are an unprecedented case. It is uncertain whether US inflation will rise first or the real economy of the tariff-targeted countries will be hit first." He added, "Central banks in each country should closely devise countermeasures for the subsequent situation." ③ Intensification of Geopolitical Risks...Retaliation May Backfire Finally, the retaliatory measures of countries harmed by the US's unilateral imposition of reciprocal tariffs are also a risk factor. As soon as President Trump announced the reciprocal tariffs, the European Union, Canada, and China immediately expressed their intention to retaliate. In particular, China's Ministry of Commerce stated in a statement, "It ignores the results of the balance of interests derived from years of multilateral trade negotiations and the fact that the US has long gained huge benefits in international trade," and "China firmly opposes the US's reciprocal tariff measures and will firmly take countermeasures to protect its interests." In addition, if Japan and China, which hold the first and second largest amounts of US Treasury bonds, sell US Treasury bonds as a retaliatory measure, it could also affect US interest rates. In fact, China has been continuously selling US Treasury bonds in response to US protectionism over the past few years. Professor Kim Jin-il said, "If countries like China choose to sell Treasury bonds as a countermeasure, US interest rates will naturally rise." Could Be Positive for Bitcoin On the other hand, some experts argue that President Trump's reciprocal tariff policy could act as a long-term positive for Bitcoin. Omid Malekan, an associate professor at Columbia University Business School, said, "Bitcoin is already called 'digital gold' and is considered a safe asset. As economic uncertainty increases, investors may choose Bitcoin to protect asset value." Another industry insider also stated, "Such unilateral behavior by the US weakens the dollar's currency dominance and the US economy," and "There is enough possibility that assets like Bitcoin or gold will be spotlighted as a result of this reciprocal tariff impact." Jinwook, Bloomingbit Reporter wook9629@bloomingbit.io
April 3PiCK