Recently, concerns have arisen that there could be a 'bottleneck' in the global infrastructure for storing and verifying gold. Physical gold demand has surged amid the global 'gold rush'. The opening of the $4,000 era According to Reuters on the 15th, the international spot gold price reached $4,078 per troy ounce, setting an all-time high. It has risen more than 53% so far this year. Analysts say it is the most explosive rally since the 1979 second oil shock. The recent gold rally is qualitatively different from the past. It goes beyond simple inflation hedging or short-term safe-haven preference. It is occurring amid a reordering of the global monetary and geopolitical system. In particular, the impact has grown as three powerful buyers—central banks, exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors, and individual investors—are all buying physical gold simultaneously. Bob Triest, an economics professor at Northeastern University, said 'gold passing $4,000 is not just a milestone' and added 'it is a strong signal that structural concerns about geopolitical instability and currency depreciation have crossed a critical threshold.' Strategic moves by central banks One major factor behind this rally is a change in confidence in the U.S. dollar. The trend began when Western countries froze Russia's foreign exchange reserves after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That showed dollar assets are no longer a safe haven free from geopolitical conflict. 'De-dollarization' has accelerated among central banks. According to Reuters, citing IMF statistics, the share of the U.S. dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves has recently been on the decline. The dollar share, about 71% in 2001, fell to 57.4% in the third quarter last year. IMF's latest 'Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER)' data (as of Q4 2024) also show dollar assets account for only 57.8% of global official foreign exchange reserves. This is roughly a 9 percentage point decrease from ten years earlier. Gold is not included among central banks' official foreign currency reserves. However, central banks have expanded their gold holdings. According to the Atlantic Council, gold is estimated to account for about 15% of global central banks' official reserve assets. Data from the World Gold Council (WGC) indicate that central banks are expected to purchase more than 1,000 tonnes of gold per year for four consecutive years from 2022 to 2025. That pace is more than double the average annual purchases in the 2010s. Specifically, emerging markets and countries with recent geopolitical risks have preferred gold. Russia and China are representative examples. The People's Bank of China had a gold share of only 1.8% of its foreign exchange reserves in 2015. It has recently raised that to 4.9%. Russia also greatly increased gold holdings instead of dollar assets after the 2022 war in Ukraine due to concerns about Western financial sanctions. Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Thailand, and others have joined the buying ranks. In the first quarter of this year alone, China, Poland, and Azerbaijan actively bought gold, recording net purchases of 244 tonnes for the quarter. That is 25% larger than the recent five-year average. Juan Carlos Artigas, head of research at the World Gold Council (WGC), analyzed that 'central banks' gold purchases go beyond simple portfolio diversification and are strategic moves to secure sovereignty over national assets amid distrust of the Western-centric financial system.' Central banks are also actively repatriating gold to their own territories. The share of gold held domestically, which was about 50% in 2020, rose to 68% last year. This is seen as a direct response to concerns that assets held overseas (New York, London, etc.) could be exposed to potential sanction risks. If central bank demand has provided a floor for the gold market, the catalyst for the price rally has been funds from institutions and individual investors. Inflows into physically backed gold ETFs reached record levels. In Q3 this year, global gold ETFs saw a record quarterly net inflow of $26 billion. Inflows into gold ETFs do more than shift liquidity within financial markets. When investors buy shares of physically backed gold ETFs such as 'SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)' or 'iShares Gold Trust (IAU)', a process of physical conversion of gold takes place. The key actors in this process are large financial institutions known as 'authorized participants (Authorized Participant·AP)'. APs, in exchange for receiving large blocks of ETF shares from the ETF manager, must deliver an equivalent value of physical gold bars directly to the ETF's 'custodian bank'. These custodian banks include global banks such as HSBC and J.P. Morgan. Their vaults are mostly concentrated in London. This is why London was chosen as the hub for global over-the-counter (OTC) gold trading. The 'Good Delivery Bar' standard established by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) strictly specifies gold bar purity, weight, and refinery certification, serving as a globally accepted quality assurance. Shortage of popular vaults? The pressure on the gold infrastructure market is easier to understand when investment amounts are converted into the actual weight of gold. In the past, when gold was $1,250 per troy ounce, $1 billion could secure about 25 tonnes of gold. As of October this year, at $4,000 per troy ounce, one metric tonne (tonne) is about 32,150.7 troy ounces. With $1 billion, you could secure about 7.78 tonnes, a reduced weight compared to the past. The amount of physical gold obtained for the same money—the 'weight'—has sharply decreased. Yet the absolute scale of funds flowing from ETFs and central banks has grown. This still places considerable strain on the physical gold storage and logistics system. For example, Q3 ETF inflows of $26 billion created demand for about 202 tonnes of physical gold. According to the LBMA, as of August this year, the total amount of gold stored in London's accredited vaults was 8,841 tonnes. Bottlenecks in the gold infrastructure arise as market participants seek top-tier gold and storage space. Institutions such as central banks and large pension funds do not entrust their assets to just any vault. They prefer only top-grade facilities that guarantee political stability, predictable legal systems, high levels of insurance coverage, and regular independent audits. There is a subtle 'location premium' in the global gold market where the value of a gold bar varies depending on where it is stored. Top-tier investors such as central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and large ETFs require the highest standards for asset safety. They prefer vaults that are LBMA-accredited and located in countries whose political and legal stability has been proven for decades. Vaults meeting these conditions are concentrated in a few global financial hubs such as London, New York, and Zurich. Recently, new Asian hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong have emerged, but it will take time to overcome the wall of long-established trust and infrastructure. In Hong Kong, concerns about political risk remain. Robert Gottlieb, a former HSBC precious metals trader, pointed out that 'there is always a fear about whether the Hong Kong market is a genuine international market or a place where the Chinese government could change regulations if it does not like the outcome.' A new gold valuation method has recently appeared. In January, the LBMA announced the 'Gold Bar Integrity (GBI) database' initiative. GBI, based on blockchain technology, assigns a unique digital identifier to every gold bar produced at LBMA-accredited refineries. It is a system that permanently records production information, ownership transfer history, and storage locations. The goal of this system is to trace the entire life cycle of gold 'from refinery to vault' and increase market transparency. Through this, illegal gold involved in 'conflict minerals', money laundering, or terrorist financing can be blocked from entering legitimate distribution channels at the source. Demand for physical assets such as gold has surged recently, drawing attention to the gold security logistics and vault industry. Rising companies in this field include Brink's and Loomis. Both companies operate precious metals transport and storage divisions. Their performance has improved due to increased physical movement demand in the gold market. Brink's said in its Q1 earnings release that 'global service grew due to increased precious metals movement.' Bank of Korea in 'cautious mode' While the world is reshaping safe-asset portfolios around gold, the Bank of Korea's stance is judged to be cautious. Global central banks have bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold per year on average over the past three years. Over the same period, the Bank of Korea's official gold holdings have remained at 104.4 tonnes for more than ten years since February 2013. As of the end of September this year, that is only about 1.2% of foreign exchange reserves. Reasons cited include gold's low liquidity, high price volatility, and the fact that it is a non-yielding asset with no cash flows such as interest or dividends. Some speculate that the Bank of Korea hesitates to buy gold because of past experience. The Bank of Korea concentrated its purchases of 90 tonnes of gold between 2011 and 2013 at prices of $1,500–1,600 per troy ounce, and after gold prices plunged, it faced criticism for 'buying at the peak.' [Global Money X-file covers important but little-known flows of world money. If you want to conveniently read necessary global economic news, please subscribe to the reporter page] Reporter Kim Ju-wan kjwan@hankyung.com
October 14General