Bitcoin shows signs of entering 'Wave 3' as selling pressure eases…forecast up to $240,000

Bitcoin (BTC) is reportedly finishing a corrective phase and may be entering an expansion phase of 'Wave 3.' Some market analysts say that if the long-term bullish wave continues, the price could rise to between $200,000 and $240,000.

Bitcoin is rebounding while using the 40-week simple moving average (SMA) as support. Market analyst Gert Van Lagen told Cointelegraph on the 2nd (local time), "Bitcoin is finishing the Wave 2 correction and is about to enter the full Wave 3 phase," adding, "If this bullish phase completes, it could extend to the $200,000–$240,000 range." He explained that in similar periods in 2019 and 2023, a "stair-step bullish wave" developed before a sharp rally.

Trader Jelle analyzed that Bitcoin is trading near the mid-range resistance of a long-term ascending channel. He said, "If the current range is broken, there is additional upside potential toward the channel top near $350,000," and, "It shows a structure similar to previous cycles."

From a macroeconomic standpoint, a recovery in risk-on preference was also suggested. Economist Sminston With noted that the U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has remained below the 50 threshold for nearly 3 years and said, "After the longest economic slowdown since 1948, a strong rebound followed." He analyzed, "If a mean-reversion phase in the economy begins, capital could flow into risk assets, and Bitcoin is likely to benefit."

There are also views that short-term technical confirmation is needed. Bitcoin filled a futures price gap on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) after October 10 and has been attempting to find support around $105,000. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported, "Open interest in futures has decreased since the large liquidations on October 10, and derivatives trading volume has also declined," adding, "The share of whale transactions is falling while retail investor participation has relatively increased."

Hyblock Capital said that long-position liquidations were concentrated near $100,000 recently, but a short-term rebound followed, evaluating that "the recent liquidation zone could act as a localized retracement signal." They also suggested that if Bitcoin establishes support above $105,000, the long-term bullish trend could be strengthened.

Ultimately, the prevailing view is that the 'Wave 3' expansion scenario could materialize if Bitcoin breaks through resistance in the $105,000 to low $110,000 range. Conversely, if it falls back below that range, a reconfirmation of support at $100,000 would likely be unavoidable.