CryptoQuant CEO "Bitcoin Could Turn Upward If Macro Recovers"

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding the $100,000 level and showing a trend of easing selling pressure, and CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said, "If macroeconomic conditions improve, now could be a buying opportunity."

On the 12th (local time), according to AMB Crypto, Bitcoin recently reattempted the $110,000 resistance after reports of a possible U.S. federal government shutdown resolution, but still faces selling pressure and is trading around $105,200. Ki Young Ju said, "Although selling pressure remains across the market, if the macro outlook improves, it could be seen as a buying opportunity."

According to on-chain data analysis, since late September Bitcoin's weekly realized profit (Realized Profit) has remained at around $1 billion~$2 billion. This is about half of the level that reached $4 billion in July due to large profit-taking by long-term holders. Ki said, "With selling pressure roughly halved, if macroeconomic recovery signals coincide, a foundation for a shift to upside could be established."

The market is focusing on major macro variables such as easing of the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT), expectations of rate cuts, and the possibility that a dovish figure could be appointed as Jerome Powell's (Fed chair) successor. If these liquidity-expanding factors materialize, risk-on sentiment is expected to recover and have a positive impact on Bitcoin.

However, in the short term, selling by large investors (whales) appears to exceed demand from ETFs and institutional treasury (DAT). Since the start of November, net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs have been negative, and institutional buying has also weakened. Trading firm QCP Capital said, "Institutional demand has not yet absorbed past sell volumes, so Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound for the time being," adding, "the upside will be limited to around $118,000."

Bitfinex analysts offered a similar outlook, analyzing, "The bullish structure will resume only if the price recovers to support the short-term holders' average purchase price (SHT Cost Basis) of $112,500."

Swissblock's analysis team said that if Bitcoin recovers and holds the $108,000~$110,000 range, a full-scale bullish reversal signal will be confirmed. Swissblock said, "If it maintains the structure and retakes the $108,000~$110,000 range, momentum will ignite," and evaluated that "selling pressure is gradually easing, and Bitcoin is showing initial signs of a bullish reversal."