Bitcoin gave back its gains from the start of the year, but… experts say "the cycle is still valid"

Over the weekend, the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market plunged, and Bitcoin (BTC) gave back most of the gains it had recorded so far this year.

On the 17th (local time), according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin at one point fell to $93,029, down 25% from the all-time high recorded in October. This put it below the price at the start of the year, $93,507. It is currently rebounding and trading at $94,729.66 on CoinMarketCap.

Since President Donald Trump's inauguration earlier this year, a pro-virtual-asset policy stance continued, and the market had expected to enter a bullish phase. The Trump administration has been pursuing regulatory clarity and industry support policies, and companies' adoption of Bitcoin financial strategies and inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs have also increased. However, in this process, uncertainties over tariff policy and the repeated 43-day government shutdown, the longest in history, are judged to have repeatedly increased market volatility.

Market participants point to the gradual selling by early investors and whales as another factor that slowed this year's Bitcoin rally. Some large holders taking profits weakened the upward momentum. However, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode diagnosed, "Sales by OG investors are exaggerated. This is a gradual distribution pattern commonly seen in late bull markets."

The bearish trend is not unique to Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH) is down 7.95% from the start of the year, while Solana (SOL) has been adjusted down 28.3% over the same period. Most altcoins recorded larger drops, reflecting an overall risk-off trend.

Within the virtual asset industry, debate continues over whether "the four-year cycle has weakened." Opinions have been raised that institutional investment expansion and regulatory clarity have significantly changed market structure compared to the past.

Nevertheless, Matt Hougan, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO), remains optimistic in the mid-to-long term. He said, "With the debasement trade (investing in response to currency value decline) and the full-scale spread of stablecoins, tokenized securities, and DeFi, the crypto market will show a strong uptrend again in 2026," and added, "Fundamentals remain solid."