U.S. FOMC releases October minutes… Majority "QT ends December 1"

JH Kim

Summary

The U.S. Federal Reserve said that the majority of members agreed to end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1.
Committee members were divided over interest rate cuts this year, and said a December rate cut is not certain.
The minutes are assessed as maintaining a cautious stance toward a shift to policy easing, contrary to market expectations, while indicating the possibility of policy easing.

In the minutes of the October 2025 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) on the 19th (local time), committee members appeared to show clearly divided views regarding interest rate cuts this year. Amid growing uncertainty over rate cuts this year, the majority of members agreed to set the end date of quantitative tightening (QT) as December 1.

According to the minutes, several members maintained opposition to implementing a rate cut at the current time. They pointed out that signals of price stability were not sufficiently secured and that recent data volatility makes policy judgments difficult. On the other hand, some members argued that a December rate cut would be appropriate and advocated an earlier shift to easing. Another group said that rates should be kept unchanged this year until slowing inflation is fully confirmed, maintaining a cautious stance.

Although most members saw the policy stance easing over time, the minutes stated "a December rate cut is not a certainty," sending a signal different from market expectations.

Separately from policy normalization, it is noteworthy that almost all members favored ending quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1. Ending QT is interpreted as restoring liquidity supply in the financial system to normal levels.

The Fed's minutes are being assessed as containing a compromise message that adjusts market expectations for the December decision while keeping the possibility of a future shift to an easing stance.