U.S. Jobs · Fed Remarks…Volatile Bitcoin

Minseung Kang

Summary

It reported that Bitcoin's price fell about 9% over the past week, giving back all of this year's gains.
It stated that the cryptocurrency market's direction is uncertain as the Fed's rate-cut signals and strong U.S. employment data are at odds.
Crypto analytics firms said that selling centered on Wall Street's ETF capital and the absence of a clear bottom signal are continuing the medium-term bearish trend.

Crypto Now

"No Clear Bottom Signal Detected"

Following the release of strong U.S. employment data, Bitcoin, which had been in a weak trend, has seen increased volatility amid mixed policy signals from the U.S. central bank (Fed).

According to CoinMarketCap on the 23rd, the price of Bitcoin fell about 9% over the past week. Since giving up the psychological support level of $100,000 earlier this month, the weakness has intensified and it has given back all of this year's gains. It is trading around $85,000.

The cryptocurrency market has been unable to find a clear direction as signals about the prospect of rate cuts are mixed. Although some of the recent losses have been recovered in the short term, assessments say the possibility of a trend reversal remains unclear.

On the 21st, John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said at an event hosted by the Central Bank of Chile, "The Fed may have room to cut rates in the short term. Current monetary policy is somewhat tight and the labor market is easing," stoking expectations of rate cuts. Indeed, immediately after the remark, the probability of a December rate cut surged from the 30% range to about 70%. Bitcoin, which had been trading around $82,000, rebounded to $84,000.

By contrast, the employment data released on the 20th acted as a factor limiting Fed rate cut expectations. U.S. September job gains increased by 119,000, showing a robust trend, and the hourly wage growth rate also exceeded expectations at 3.8%.

Some analyses also suggest that the sellers in the recent downturn are the so-called 'Wall Street whales.' Cryptocurrency analytics firm 10X Research said, "Wall Street is reducing positions for risk management reasons, centered on exchange-traded fund (ETF) capital," and added, "There are also sales close to forced liquidations."

Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, said, "The recent correction has been significant, but no clear bottom signal has been detected," and added, "It is a bearish trend in the medium term, but the long-term trend is being maintained."

Kang Min-seung, BloomingBit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io

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