Whether Bitcoin can recover to $112,000 depends on overcoming uncertainties such as interest rates and inflation

Bitcoin has recently continued a bearish trend over the past month and is showing limited movement below $92,000. The market sees interest rate outlooks, inflation expectations, the global regulatory environment, and changes in the derivatives market structure as the key factors that will determine future direction.

On the 26th (local time), Cointelegraph reported that investors are simultaneously watching the possibility of increased liquidity provision in several countries and hopes for rate cuts. Meanwhile, slowing employment indicators and uncertainty surrounding investment in artificial intelligence are weighing on risk asset sentiment.

In particular, it explained that the rebound in U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs and the possibility of rates being held steady are creating a subtle balance in bitcoin investment sentiment. With Chair Powell's term approaching its end, there is also a view that if the next Fed chair adopts a dovish stance, it could become an inflection point in the market environment in the first half of next year.

Also, MSCI is scheduled to finalize on January 15 next year the index inclusion criteria for companies centered on holding bitcoin, which is being cited as a variable that could affect related stocks and spot bitcoin demand. MicroStrategy's chairman Michael Saylor drew a line on the possibility of MSCI exclusion, saying his company's bitcoin strategy is not simply for investment purposes.

Volatility pressures continue in the bitcoin options market as well. According to the report, over the past month put options have remained structured 10% more expensive than call options, with investors assessing downside risk more heavily. With $22.6 billion in options expiries scheduled at year-end, analysts say confidence is likely to remain limited until skew is normalized below 5%.

Ultimately, analysts said that for bitcoin to recover to $112,000, four conditions need to align: stability in interest rates and inflation indicators, easing of global regulation, the MSCI decision, and normalization of the derivatives market. The market is focusing on these as major catalysts in the first half of 2026.