Rebreaking 'Sachunpi'? … Domestic market seen gaining momentum as U.S. stocks rise [Preview of today's market]

Overnight U.S. stocks all rose, and domestic markets are also expected to rise. The probability of a rate cut by the U.S. central bank (Fed) this month increased, spreading a risk-on sentiment toward risk assets. Bitcoin prices also rose nearly 5%, partially recouping losses.

On the 2nd (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow closed up 0.39% from the previous day at 47,474,46. Over the same period, the S&P 500 rose 0.25% to 6,829.37, and the Nasdaq finished trading up 0.9% at 23,413.67. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.84% to 7,149.47.

Bitcoin, which had fallen to around USD 84,000 the previous day, rebounded to around USD 91,000. News that Bank of America recommended wealthy clients include up to 4% Bitcoin in their portfolios and that Vanguard, which had been cautious about crypto ETFs, allowed access helped boost risk asset preference.

Markets rose that day as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut this month increased. According to FedWatch, the current bet for a December cut stands at 89.2%. Also, U.S. President Donald Trump on the 2nd introduced Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), as a leading candidate for the next Fed chair. He is expected to lead rate cuts in line with the Trump administration's stance.

Meanwhile, indicators showed that U.S. consumers remained resilient during the Thanksgiving shopping season. According to an Adobe Analytics report, U.S. shoppers spent USD 14.25 billion on Cyber Monday. Online sales totaled USD 44.2 billion, exceeding the expected USD 43.7 billion. According to UBS, historically when the Fed cuts rates without a recession, the market has performed best.

Seo Sang-young, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "The fact that U.S. stocks still reflect expectations for the artificial intelligence (AI) industry and that semiconductor companies led gains is favorable for the Korean market," adding, "Also, the expanded expectation of a Fed rate cut and the solid late-session performance were positive."

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "Domestic markets are expected to open higher influenced by U.S.-origin factors such as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's strength," and explained, "During the session, profit-taking will likely occur mainly in large-cap stocks that surged the previous day, leading to rotation and sectoral differentiation."

Reporter Park Joo-yeon grumpy_cat@hankyung.com