U.S.-origin 'positive' and cautionary elements at the same time…Will secondary battery and semiconductor stocks rise further? [Today's market preview]

On the 9th, the domestic stock market will be watching whether both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ can continue the previous day's gains centered on semiconductors and secondary batteries. However, there are also forecasts that U.S.-origin 'upside' and 'downside' factors will act simultaneously, making it likely to be a cautious, wait-and-see market.

Domestic stocks rose on semiconductors and secondary batteries…SK Hynix up 6%

The previous day, both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ closed higher. The KOSPI was up 1.34% from the previous day at 4,154.85, and the KOSDAQ was up 0.33% at 927.79.

Leading the day's gains were semiconductor and secondary battery stocks. The secondary battery materials and equipment sector rose 6.60%, contributing 0.27% to the KOSPI market and leading the index increase.

Investor sentiment across the secondary battery sector improved after news that LG Energy Solution had signed a large contract with Mercedes-Benz. EcoPro rose 21.26%, hitting a 52-week intraday high. EcoProBM rose 8.52%.

The semiconductor sector contributed 0.98% to the KOSPI market. The strength of SK Hynix (6.07%) was instrumental. SK Hynix's stock rose further on hopes that it could issue ADRs in the U.S. Kim Sun-woo, a researcher at Meritz Securities, said, "If SK Hynix issues ADRs, it could quickly narrow the valuation gap with Micron."

Along with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, considered one of the country's two major semiconductor stocks, rose 1.01% to close at 109,500 won.

On the KOSDAQ, concerns about reduced liquidity emerged after Alteogen, the largest by market cap, resolved to transfer to the KOSPI, but foreign buying later flowed in and it closed higher. Foreigners were net buyers of KRW 382.7 billion, while institutions and individuals were net sellers of KRW 189.4 billion and KRW 143.8 billion, respectively.

U.S. stocks 'paused' ahead of FOMC

U.S. markets, which serve as a barometer for domestic markets, all closed lower the previous day. Caution intensified ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting starting on the 9th (local time).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.45% to 47,739.32, the S&P 500 fell 0.35% to 6,846.51, and the Nasdaq fell 0.14% to 23,545.90.

Although expectations for a rate cut this month are prevailing, uncertainty in the dot plot that could indicate next year's rate direction has put investors in a 'temporary pause' mood. Except for tech stocks, all sectors fell. Energy, consumer discretionary, materials, communication services, utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare each fell more than 1%.

Among tech stocks, NVIDIA rose 1.73%. NVIDIA's stock rose on reports that the U.S. Commerce Department would allow exports of the NVIDIA H200 to China. However, the export approval does not include NVIDIA's cutting-edge AI chip 'Blackwell' or the soon-to-be-released 'Rubin.'

Microsoft and Broadcom rose 1.63% and 2.78%, respectively, on reports that they are discussing joint development of custom chips.

Alphabet, which had been clearly rising recently, fell 2.29%. Tesla, the largest holding of domestic Korean U.S. stock investors, fell 3.39%.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.16%, up 2.9bp, influenced by concerns about a hawkish approach to rate cuts and the possibility of ECB rate hikes. The dollar index was 99.10 (+0.11%).

"Major events concentrated this week…Need to respond from a short-term perspective"

Market experts unanimously said that domestic investors should prepare for short-term volatility starting today, as several major U.S.-origin variables that could significantly affect sentiment are scattered throughout the week. The FOMC meeting is on the 9th–10th. Oracle reports earnings on the 10th, and Broadcom reports on the 11th.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "The previous day's rise in semiconductors and secondary batteries was largely due to individual positive news from major companies," adding, "Today, with a mix of U.S.-origin upside and downside factors, the market may go through a cautious phase as it digests profit-taking after recent consecutive gains." She added, "There is a possibility of increased volatility pressure during AI stock earnings events such as Oracle and Broadcom."

However, it was pointed out that attention should also be paid to policy expectations in the KOSDAQ market. Shin Hyun-yong, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, said, "The government is reportedly preparing measures to revitalize the KOSDAQ market in December, prompting foreign buying," and "Based on policy benefits and the month-end change in December, small- and mid-cap stocks on the KOSDAQ could show relatively solid performance."

An asset management company official said, "Preparations are also needed for increased supply-demand volatility due to the simultaneous futures and options expiration scheduled for the 11th," adding, "After the midweek when major events are concentrated, it may be appropriate to respond from a short-term perspective."

Reporter Seon Han-gyeol always@hankyung.com