KOSPI Eyes Record Highs — Will Micron Help? [Weekly Outlook]

The KOSPI index has surpassed the 4,100 level and is within sight of an intraday record high (4226.75). However, as stocks rise, resistance from profit-taking selling is not insignificant. There are also concerns that market liquidity may thin as year-end approaches. Attention is on whether the earnings announcement from U.S. Micron Technology will provide the momentum to push prices to new highs.

On the 14th, NH Investment & Securities presented a KOSPI forecast band of 3900–4200 for this week (15–19). Compared with last week's closing price (4167.16), the forecast assumes more downside than upside.

Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "Although a number of major U.S. economic data are scheduled to be released this week, their impact on the market should be limited because they will be released after the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December," adding, "KOSPI is expected to move sideways around the 4,000 level as it checks U.S. corporate earnings releases."

Attention is particularly focused on the earnings that U.S. memory chipmaker Micron Technology will report on the 17th (local time), as it is considered a barometer of the memory chip market.

Micron is expected to post unprecedented strong results based on recent DRAM price increases. Deutsche Bank projected Micron's revenue for the upcoming report at $12.8 billion, forecasting about a 13% increase from the previous quarter. Deutsche Bank also added optimistic views that next year's DRAM price increase rate could reach the high 20% range.

If Micron posts results that far exceed expectations, it is expected to strongly stimulate investor sentiment toward Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and could lift the KOSPI.

However, Oracle and Broadcom, which reported earnings earlier, have revived talk of an "artificial intelligence (AI) bubble."

Broadcom, a company specialized in application-specific integrated circuits(ASIC), reported operating results that beat expectations. But Bloomberg analyzed that Broadcom disappointed investors by mentioning a backlog of AI product orders of $73 billion to be shipped over the next six quarters. Also, citing market uncertainty, Broadcom did not provide an AI revenue forecast for fiscal year 2026.

Oracle, which had earlier amplified AI bubble concerns through a sharp rise in credit default swap(CDS) premiums, reported cloud infrastructure and cloud sales that slightly missed expectations and plunged as much as 10.83% in regular trading on the 11th (local time).

Market supply-demand conditions are also not rosy. Kang Jin-hyeok, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, "KOSPI is facing resistance near record highs," adding, "Fundamentals are sound, but volatility is widening as order flow thins ahead of year-end."

He added, "Attention should be paid to the possibility of sell-offs aimed at avoiding capital gains tax on transfers by major shareholders, especially in stocks with a high proportion of retail investors."

Analyses suggesting using widened volatility as a buying opportunity are drawing attention. Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, "The combined 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) indicator for KOSPI has expanded to 402 points on the back of global economic recovery and strong semiconductor exports, and the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is 10.2 times, below the 3-year average (10.33 times)," adding, "Volatility during the verification of major economic indicators and monetary policy is an opportunity to increase allocation."

Han Gyeong-woo Hankyung.com reporter case@hankyung.com