Every so often... the AI bubble theory has reappeared

Asia's stock markets fell in unison after the 'artificial intelligence (AI) bubble' debate resurfaced in the U.S. market. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also could not avoid 2~3% declines. With semiconductor stocks weak, rotation flows moved into bio, robotics, and domestically oriented stocks.

○The AI bubble debate resurfaces

On the 15th, the KOSPI index closed at 4090.59, down 1.84%. Asian markets fell across the board. Japan's Nikkei 225 index was down 1.31%, and Taiwan's Taiex index fell 1.17%. On the bourse, foreign investors sold off KRW 959 billion worth, leading the index decline. Institutional investors also net-sold KRW 483 billion. Individual investors net-bought KRW 1.423 trillion.

The 'AI bubble' debate that emerged in the U.S. market had an impact. The day before, Broadcom plunged 11.43% on the Nasdaq. Despite reporting strong fourth-quarter results, its outlook was weighed down by AI order backlog for the next 18 months (USD 73 billion) falling short of expectations. Oracle also fell 4.47% after a Bloomberg report said the data center it is building for OpenAI would be completed in 2028 instead of 2027. Oracle denied the report, but its stock closed lower. Analysts say investors' doubts about the profitability of the AI industry have not been easily dispelled.

Domestic markets also saw large declines in semiconductor stocks. Samsung Electronics closed at KRW 105,100, plunging 3.49%. However, it pared losses in the afternoon. SK Hynix, which had fallen more than 6% right after the open, closed down 12.98% at KRW 554,000. As semiconductor stocks fell across the board, rotation funds moved into bio, robotics, and domestic-oriented stocks. That day, Samsung Biologics and ABL Bio rose 4.73% and 3.05%, respectively.

○"Micron's results will determine the direction"

Securities firms analyze the repeated AI bubble talk and related sharp price drops as a 'short-term correction.' Despite the January shock from China's cost-effective AI 'Deepseek,' Sam Altman's comments in August about overheated AI stocks, and the AI bubble arguments pushed by Michael Burry, AI-related stocks have remained resilient. Lee Kyung-min, head of FICC Research at Daishin Securities, said, "The two pillars supporting the market — the growth potential of the AI industry and the prospect of a U.S. rate cut — remain in place," adding, "The recent correction is a process of narrowing the gap between expectations and reality." He added, "This is a period of sorting the winners and losers within the AI industry," and "it may be worth increasing weight in companies around Google's value chain."

Samsung Securities forecasts that concerns about the AI industry could turn to enthusiasm as AI data centers begin full-scale operations around 2028 and profits increase. Researcher Lee Jong-wook at Samsung Securities said, "In the short term, there is a high possibility of a rebound around next January's CES — where it will be proven that AI increases user utility." Kim Dae-jun of Korea Investment & Securities also said, "Korean semiconductor stocks are likely to wobble for a while due to weakness in U.S. tech stocks," but added, "From a long-term perspective, patience is needed."

In the short term, Micron's fiscal 2026 first-quarter results and guidance, to be released after the market close on the 17th (local time), are expected to be a turning point for AI-related stocks. Micron's results will inevitably affect Korean peers with similar main businesses such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Seo Sang-young, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "If they fail to report earnings per share (EPS) above the market's expected USD 4.06, sell orders could emerge."

Reporter Shim Seong-mi smshim@hankyung.com