Tesla unusually discloses weak sales outlook…vehicle delivery decline expected [Stock+]

4th quarter deliveries: 422,850 vehicles

Expected to decrease 15% year-on-year

Vehicle sales expected to decline for a second consecutive year

Tesla released sales estimates that include a vehicle delivery outlook lower than market expectations. It is regarded as an unusual move for Tesla to officially post analysts' average sales forecasts.

According to material on Tesla's website on the 30th (local time) that compiled analysts' average projections, fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries are expected to average 422,850 vehicles, a 15% decrease year-on-year. This is lower than the Bloomberg compilation average of 440,907 vehicles (an 11% decrease year-on-year).

Tesla had been collecting sales estimates through its IR department and sharing them only with certain analysts and investors, but had not publicly posted them.

Gary Black, co-founder of Future Fund Advisors, told Bloomberg it was "very unusual" and said "it appears Tesla wanted to publicize as widely as possible the consensus derived internally through IR." He forecast that Tesla's actual fourth-quarter delivery number is likely to be around 420,000 vehicles.

Tesla is also expected to see vehicle sales decline for a second consecutive year on an annual basis. According to the company's compiled average forecast, annual deliveries for this year are about 1.6 million vehicles, which appears to be down more than 8% from the previous year. Sales forecasts for the next three years were also presented below Bloomberg's compiled figures.

After the disclosure of these forecasts, Tesla's stock fell as much as 1.3% intraday but later recovered most of the losses.

Tesla's weak sales have continued since the beginning of the year. Production disruptions occurred in the process of retooling production lines at factories worldwide for a partial refresh of the best-selling Model Y. This period also coincided with Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, performing a controversial role in the Trump administration.

However, in the third quarter, vehicle deliveries reached a record high as U.S. consumers rushed to purchase to receive the federal electric vehicle tax credit of $7,500, which ended at the end of September. Tesla subsequently launched low-priced models of the Model Y sport utility vehicle (SUV) and the Model 3 sedan priced below $40,000 from the beginning of the fourth quarter to offset the demand slowdown following the end of the tax benefit.

New York = correspondent Shin-young Park nyusos@hankyung.com