Bitcoin extends bearish signals after key support breaks…on-chain indicators also warn of a ‘structural downturn’

With Bitcoin (BTC) breaking below major bull-market support levels in succession, concerns are growing over medium-term downside pressure.

According to Cointelegraph on the 1st (local time), bearish expectations have spread rapidly across the market after the $80,700 level—known as the “true market mean”—gave way, and traders are now citing specific price zones for potential further declines.

Trader Cmt_trader predicted that “the main downside liquidity targets in this down cycle are $74,400 and $49,180.” Rekt Capital said the post–bull-market EMA crossover price action resembles past patterns. “The pattern of additional declines after a bull-market EMA crossover is repeating,” he said, adding that “this time as well, after the crossover Bitcoin fell about 17% from $90,000 to $78,000.” The crossover refers to a signal between the 21-week EMA and the 50-week EMA; the previous instance was in April 2022.

That said, some see the potential for a short-term rebound. A newly formed price gap in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures market remains near $84,000, suggesting that area could serve as a near-term retracement target. Trader Killa said “the $84,000 CME gap could be filled in the coming weeks.”

On-chain indicators, however, are calling for a more cautious approach. In a recent report, CryptoQuant pointed to the spot price trading below the realized price of investors holding for 12–18 months as a key risk factor. Realized price refers to the average cost basis at which those investors last moved their Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk warned that “if price remains below this cost band, the market tends to shift from a simple correction to a structurally bearish phase.” He added that “when realized price is flat or rising and spot price falls below it, rebound attempts have often failed after running into breakeven supply.”

Overall, the assessment is that both technical indicators and on-chain data suggest Bitcoin has entered a phase where, despite the possibility of a short-term bounce, medium-term volatility and the risk of further declines coexist.