"Bitcoin trend clearly weakening… possibility of testing $70,000 and the 200-week MA"

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a clearly bearish phase in its price action, according to an assessment.

On Feb. 2 (local time), Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, wrote on X that "from Jan. 28 to 31, Bitcoin fell about 15%, and on Jan. 31 alone it plunged 10%, triggering liquidations of long positions totaling more than $20 billion."

In the process, Bitcoin slid intraday to around $75,600, dropping below $84,000—estimated to be the average purchase price of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—and came close to $74,400, the year-to-date low formed in April 2025. About 46% of total Bitcoin supply is currently in unrealized loss, data show.

Thorn said that "in the near term, Bitcoin could fall further to the lower end of the supply gap formed around $70,000, and in the coming weeks to months, it cannot be ruled out that it will test the 200-week moving average (around $58,000) and the realized price (around $56,000)." He added that this zone has served as a long-term bottom area across multiple past cycles.

While the pace of profit-taking by long-term holders has slowed recently, there has still been no clear sign of large-scale accumulation led by whale investors or long-term holders. Thorn also pointed out that Bitcoin has failed to rise in tandem even as traditional safe havens such as gold and silver have strengthened, weakening its narrative as a "hedge against currency debasement."

Thorn added that "in the short term, the Bitcoin market could face additional downside pressure," and said that "long-term investors need to pay attention to key support levels and shifts in on-chain indicators."