Bitcoin breaks below the 100-week moving average…is it signaling the start of a prolonged correction phase?

Bitcoin (BTC) has broken down through the 100-week simple moving average (SMA)—widely viewed as a key long-term trend line—raising the possibility of a shift toward a medium- to long-term bearish regime.

According to Cointelegraph on the 2nd (local time), Bitcoin recently closed on the weekly chart below the 100-week SMA (around $87,500). The indicator has served as a benchmark for gauging the macro trend across past cycles, and when price has fallen below it, history shows it has more often been followed by an extended range-bound consolidation and correction rather than a quick rebound.

Crypto (digital-asset) analyst Brett noted, “With the exception of the COVID-19 crash in 2020, Bitcoin stayed below the 100-week SMA for a considerable period after losing it.” In fact, during the 2014–2015 cycle it spent about 357 days below the 100-week SMA; in 2018–2019, about 182 days; and after the 2022 FTX collapse, prices corrected while remaining below it for 532 days. A common feature across these periods was the formation of long-term accumulation zones rather than sharp snapback rallies.

Stablecoin market-share metrics are also reinforcing bearish signals. According to analyst Sherlock, Tether (USDT) dominance has risen above 7.2% on a weekly basis, marking a meaningful breakout for the first time in two and a half years. In prior cycles, a move above 6.7% tended to coincide with a full-fledged bear market, suggesting risk-off sentiment is strengthening across the broader market.

From a price-structure perspective, $85,000 is being flagged as a key resistance zone. During 2025 Q4, more than $120 billion in spot trading took place in the $85,000–$95,000 range, and with Bitcoin currently hovering around $78,000, many investors are sitting on losses. As a result, even if prices rebound, analysts say there is a strong likelihood of persistent breakeven selling emerging in that zone. In particular, the realized price of holders with a 1–3 month holding period is around $91,500, which is cited as a factor adding to overhead supply.

Some technical analyses also argue that a weekly fractal structure similar to the 2022 bear market is emerging. At the time, Bitcoin formed a lower high, broke below the 100-week SMA, failed to sustain a rebound, and then underwent further correction before building a base in the $16,000–$25,000 range. If the current pattern repeats, analysts say the possibility of a medium- to long-term retest of the $40,000–$45,000 demand zone cannot be ruled out.

Market participants are wary of the potential for increased near-term volatility, while viewing recapturing the 100-week moving average as a key inflection point for the medium-term trend. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim that level, the view that it could enter another “time-consuming consolidation/correction phase” is gaining traction.