Bitcoin regains the $70,000 level amid extreme fear... Views split between “$60,000 support vs further downside”

Bitcoin (BTC) has posted a modest rebound, but views remain divided on where it goes next.

According to Cointelegraph on the 9th (local time), bitcoin in the crypto-asset (cryptocurrency) market at one point topped $71,000. This is seen as a technical bounce from the recent post-selloff low zone. With fear sentiment having surged to extremes, some in the market expect the asset may avoid another sharp plunge in the near term.

Some analysts say current sentiment indicators resemble past bottoming phases. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, said the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 5, marking an all-time low, while bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 15—levels similar to those seen during the 2018 bear market and the 2020 Covid-19 shock. He argued that such extreme oversold conditions create room for a rebound attempt without an immediate retest of the $60,000 support level.

Some also point to liquidation dynamics as suggesting short-term upside potential. According to Coinglass data, if bitcoin rises by about $10,000, the size of short positions that could be liquidated amounts to $5.45 billion, while expected liquidations on a drop back to $60,000 would total only about $2.4 billion. This is interpreted as meaning that an upward move has more potential to trigger short covering.

On the other hand, structural weakness signals are still being cited as a headwind. According to CryptoQuant, bitcoin remains well below both its 50-day moving average (about $87,000) and 200-day moving average (about $102,000). This suggests it has entered a repricing correction phase following the previous rally. The price Z-score also remains in negative territory at -1.6, indicating selling pressure is still present.

Derivatives markets also show a clear sell-side bias. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost noted that monthly net taker buying deteriorated sharply to -$272 million, and that on Binance the buy/sell ratio fell below 1, reinforcing the dominance of sellers in the futures market. This implies that without accompanying spot demand, the rebound could be limited.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, there are also more conservative views. Investor Gele said that bitcoin bear-market bottoms in the past were mostly formed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and that in this cycle the corresponding level is around $57,000—meaning that if the historical pattern repeats, the downside could extend as far as $42,000.