XRP nears $3 on ETF approval hopes... Is a retest of $3.60 possible?

XRP is testing the $3 level in the U.S. on hopes of approval for an exchange-traded fund (ETF). According to cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) media Cointelegraph on the 3rd (local time), Bloomberg analysts put the probability of an XRP ETF being approved in the SEC's October decision at 95%. However, they note that adoption of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and tokenization indicators remain weak, making it uncertain whether the rally will be sustained over the long term.

XRP's price rose to $3.04 the previous day but then fell back to $2.94, hitting short-term resistance. The recent rise was driven by ETF hopes and increased institutional investors' participation in derivatives. The size of XRP futures contracts listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reached 386 million XRP, a 74% increase from last month. This indicates increased interest from professional asset managers and market makers.

However, XRP lagged the broader altcoin market rally. Since August, while the altcoin market cap increased 14%, XRP has remained flat. Over the same period, Hyperliquid (HYPE) rose 32%, Solana (SOL) 28%, Cardano (ADA) 19%, and Ethereum (ETH) 18%. XRP's main momentum emerged after the long dispute between Ripple and the SEC was settled.

Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD surpassed $700 million, attracting attention, but nearly 90% of its supply was issued on the Ethereum network and thus did not significantly contribute to demand on the XRPL itself. In addition, its market share in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is only 2%, lower than that of Avalanche, Stellar, and Aptos.

Experts say they cannot rule out the possibility of XRP rising to $3.60 in the short term, but point out that with the XRPL's total value locked (TVL) at only $100 million, there is insufficient momentum to sustain the rally.