U.S. government shutdown could affect handling of virtual asset bill

As the U.S. government shutdown prolongs, there are concerns that the schedule for processing the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market-structure bill under discussion in the Senate could be delayed. However, experts say the situation is not likely to completely stop efforts to advance cryptocurrency legislation.

On the 7th (local time), The Block reported that the U.S. Congress has failed to reach a budget agreement, and the government shutdown has entered its second week. As a result, with many federal agency staff placed on unpaid leave, drafting work on the virtual asset market-structure bill being pursued by the Senate Banking Committee has effectively been halted.

The bill contains provisions that clearly separate supervisory authority over digital assets between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, the Senate Agriculture Committee, which has jurisdiction over the CFTC, has not yet released its own draft.

Kristin Smith, head of the Solana Policy Institute, said, "The gap in agency staff is currently the biggest disruption," adding, "staff are unable to perform advisory work on the bill."

Ron Hammond, policy director at Wintermute, said, "The shutdown inevitably delays the Senate Banking Committee's vote schedule," and predicted, "If the shutdown continues for more than a month, the chance of a vote this year will be low."

He estimated the probability that the Senate would pass the bill by the end of this year at about 60%, and said it would fall below 50% if delayed until next spring. Conversely, if coordination between the House and Senate is completed before next year's midterm elections (November 2026), the final likelihood of legislation could reach 80~90%.

Rebecca Liao, co-founder of Saga, said, "If the shutdown ends within a few weeks, it will not have a major impact on the virtual asset policies being pursued by the Trump administration," but added, "if it continues for a long time, momentum for advancing the bill could weaken."