"Japan: Takaichi's election as prime minister 99% certain"…Agreed on coalition with the Japan Innovation Party

Opposition parties fail to reach agreement, prime minister nominated on the 21st

Japan Innovation Party to join coalition in a form of outside-cabinet cooperation

Sanae Takaichi, president of the Liberal Democratic Party, is expected to become Japan's first female prime minister. The LDP and the Japan Innovation Party have effectively agreed to form a coalition government, influenced by divisions among other opposition parties.

According to Kyodo News, Nikkei and other Japanese media on the 19th, the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party are expected to vote for LDP president Sanae Takaichi in the prime minister nomination election to be held on the 21st.

Kyodo News reported, "President Takaichi and Japan Innovation Party leader Hirofumi Yoshimura will sign a coalition agreement on the 20th," and added, "the situation has become such that President Takaichi's being elected as the first female prime minister is certain."

The Japan Innovation Party held an executive meeting in Osaka that day and is expected to hold a party assembly on the 20th to finalize its decision to participate in the coalition. The prime minister nomination election is effectively decided by the result of the House of Representatives (lower house) vote.

If the LDP's (196 seats) votes are added to the Japan Innovation Party's (35 seats), President Takaichi's nomination as prime minister becomes certain. Fujita Fumitake, co-leader of the Japan Innovation Party, said negotiations for a unified opposition candidate with the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Democratic Party for the People have been suspended.

He said, given the consultations with the LDP, "it is very difficult to seek a framework with the opposition anymore." With the Japan Innovation Party withdrawing from opposition talks, cooperation between the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Democratic Party for the People has effectively broken down.

Earlier, the Constitutional Democratic Party (148 seats) had pursued a plan to unite with the Japan Innovation Party (35 seats) and the Democratic Party for the People (27 seats) to field Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, as a single opposition candidate. The three parties combined would have 210 seats, enough to surpass the LDP (196 seats). However, the three parties ultimately failed to reach an agreement, and Tamaki said, "There is no point now that the Japan Innovation Party has withdrawn."

However, Japanese media reported that the Japan Innovation Party is likely to participate in the coalition in the form of 'outside-cabinet (閣外) cooperation' where its members do not take cabinet posts. It is reported that President Takaichi had originally offered cabinet posts to the Japan Innovation Party and sought 'inside-cabinet (閣內) cooperation' with Japan Innovation Party members joining the cabinet. Asahi reported that President Takaichi has settled on a plan to appoint Diet Affairs Committee chair Takashi Endo as a prime ministerial aide to reflect the Japan Innovation Party's position.

The South Korean Embassy in Japan also views President Takaichi's selection as prime minister as highly possible. Ambassador Lee Hyuk said at the parliamentary audit of the National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee held at the South Korean Embassy in Tokyo on the 18th, regarding the possibility of President Takaichi being selected as prime minister, "It seems almost certain that she will be selected."

Regarding concerns that the LDP teaming up with the conservative-leaning Japan Innovation Party could lead to rightward shifts, the ambassador said, "If President Takaichi becomes prime minister, she will likely reconsider to some extent because she must not ruin external relations."

Reporter Mansu Choi bebop@hankyung.com