Trump and Kim Jong-un, Possibility of a Surprise Meeting at Panmunjom Late This Month

Foreign media "U.S. government discussing a meeting"

Possibility of a meeting raised in the context of APEC

U.S. security team did not visit Panmunjom

Considering Trump's impromptu diplomacy

Cannot rule out a sudden meeting

U.S. President Donald Trump visiting Asia to meet North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un was reportedly discussed privately by U.S. government officials, according to foreign media, raising expectations of a sudden U.S.-North Korea summit. President Trump will stop in Malaysia and Japan in late this month before visiting South Korea for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Trump and Kim have not met for 6 years since their June 2019 meeting at Panmunjom.

CNN earlier cited sources saying, "Trump administration officials privately discussed ways to hold a meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un," and reported that "they are skeptical the meeting will ultimately take place." It noted that because President Trump has repeatedly expressed a desire to meet Kim Jong-un, the situation regarding a U.S.-North Korea summit could advance rapidly. In 2019, Trump also proposed a meeting with Kim Jong-un via Twitter, and the Panmunjom meeting took place in less than 48 hours.

President Trump has on several occasions expressed willingness to meet Kim Jong-un, including at the Korea–U.S. summit held at the White House this past August, where he said he was willing to meet Kim this year. There are views that, having mediated a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, President Trump might focus on talks with North Korea with an eye on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.

In this regard, the Blue House said, "South Korea and the United States will continue close communication and cooperation on overall North Korea policy, including U.S.-North Korea dialogue." Government officials have given mixed assessments about the possibility of a meeting between Trump and Kim. Minister of Unification Jeong Dong-yong answered at last week's parliamentary inspection that the likelihood of a U.S.-North Korea summit at the end of this month is "(quite) high." Ambassador to the U.S. Kang Kyung-hwa said at the inspection, "President Trump has said he is open to unconditional talks with North Korea, but there are not yet signs that something will happen in connection with APEC," and added, "We always keep the possibility open and are monitoring developments."

Experts predict that at least communication between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea will take place around this visit. Although North Korea's confidence has grown due to advanced nuclear capabilities and improved relations with China and Russia, Trump’s face must be considered. From North Korea's perspective, normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations and diplomatic recognition are desperately needed to alleviate economic hardship and are also the last wishes of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il.

Kim Jong-un has reportedly remained unresponsive to meeting proposals until recently. According to the CNN report, the Trump administration attempted contact earlier this year, but North Korea did not accept the letter and did not respond. The White House security team also visited South Korea twice ahead of Trump's trip to attend APEC, but reportedly did not inspect Panmunjom. Sources told CNN that "the Trump administration discussed the possibility of a meeting between the U.S. and North Korean leaders, but did not make any serious plans necessary to carry out such a summit." Domestic experts are skeptical about the realization of a U.S.-North Korea summit. Yang Moo-jin, distinguished professor at the University of North Korean Studies, analyzed, "If Kim Jong-un were to meet President Trump even briefly, there would be a subsequent burden to resume negotiations, so he would approach it cautiously," and "if Choe Son-hui, North Korea's foreign minister, visited China last month to discuss a U.S.-North Korea meeting in connection with APEC, China would have opposed it."

Trump and Kim have met three times so far. Their first meeting was in 2018 in Singapore, where they agreed on a new U.S.-North Korea relationship, peace on the Korean Peninsula, and complete denuclearization. In February the following year, talks in Hanoi, Vietnam, broke down over differences regarding complete denuclearization. Later that year at Panmunjom they agreed to resume working-level negotiations, but there were no clear results.

Reporters Hyun-il Lee / Jae-young Han hiuneal@hankyung.com